@CryptoHayes
Wanda ya kafa BitMEX, yanzu CIO na ofishin danginsa Maelstrom — kuma marubucin makala mafi shahara kan makro a duniyar crypto. Duk tsarinsa yana shiga cikin jimla ɗaya: yawan kuɗin fiat, ba farashin kuɗi ba, shi ne ke sanya farashin Bitcoin. Yana buga wannan a cikin makaloli masu kwanan wata, masu lamba, kuma masu magana ta zahiri da sunansa — shi ya sa ake iya duba shi.
A taƙaice. Arthur Hayes writes the crypto market's most-read macro newsletter, Crypto Trader Digest, and runs Maelstrom, the family office built on his BitMEX fortune. His thesis rarely changes: central banks and treasuries will keep creating fiat to fund deficits, wars and the AI build-out, and Bitcoin is the most sensitive asset to that expansion. What changes — sometimes violently — is his timing. Across 2026 he swung from telling readers to sit on their hands, to declaring a new all-time high a “foregone conclusion” at a price Bitcoin would not see again for four months, to admitting in print four weeks later that he had erred, to calling the bottom almost to the day. He publishes both halves, which is more than most.
An haifi Hayes a 1985, ya kammala digiri a fannin tattalin arziki a Wharton a 2008, kuma ya yi ciniki da derivatives na hannun jari a Deutsche Bank kafin ya koma Citigroup a matsayin ɗan kasuwa na delta one a Hong Kong. A 2014 ya kafa BitMEX tare da Ben Delo da Samuel Reed. Perpetual swap na kasuwar mai leverage 100x ya zama abin koyi ga cinikin leverage a crypto kuma ya sa dukkansu ukun su zama masu arziki sosai.
Ya kuma ƙare a shari'ar laifi. An gurfanar da su ukun a Oktoba 2020, kuma Hayes ya amince da laifi a Fabrairu 2022 kan keta Bank Secrecy Act — BitMEX bai gudanar da shirin yaƙi da halasta kuɗin haram da sanin abokin ciniki ba yayin da yake hidima ga abokan ciniki na Amurka. An yanke masa hukuncin watanni shida na tsare a gida da shekaru biyu na sa ido kuma ya amince ya biya $10 miliyan. Bai yi zaman gidan yari ba. Shugaba Trump ya yafe wa Hayes, Delo da Reed a ƙarshen Maris 2025. Duk wani karatun rubuce-rubucensa kan manufofin kuɗi da ƙa'idoji ya kamata ya ɗauki wannan tarihin tare da shi.
Tun bar BitMEX yana tafiyar da Maelstrom, littafin ofishin dangi na sayen kawai mai matsayi na farko a tokens ciki har da Ethena da Ether.fi, kuma yana buga Crypto Trader Digest kusan kowane mako ɗaya zuwa uku. A Agusta 2026 ya dawo daga hutun ritaya don zama CEO na Flop Labs, wadda ke shirin token FLOP a matsayin kuɗi don ƙididdigar wakilan AI — an sanar da shi a makalarsa ta 19 ga Agusta, tare da airdrop na testnet kusan kashi 20% na wadata kuma ba tare da sayarwa ta farko ba. Yanzu ya zama mai gudanarwa mai token da zai ƙaddamar, ba mai sharhi kaɗai ba.
Sources: cryptohayes.substack.com · x.com/CryptoHayes · dated public interviews and press
Top-down liquidity, expressed through derivatives. Hayes starts from the plumbing — Treasury issuance and buybacks, the Fed's balance sheet, bank credit creation, the BOJ and the yen carry trade, Chinese lending — and treats Bitcoin as the fastest-reacting claim on total fiat supply. He states it plainly: he believes the quantity of money determines Bitcoin's price, not the interest rate. His book is long-only and large, so he expresses caution by refusing to add rather than by going short, and hedges with put spreads and options rather than selling spot. The strength is the framework: he was structurally right that liquidity would expand, and his essays name the mechanism before the market prices it. The weakness is entry timing — a framework that says “eventually” gets used to justify buying anything, and in May 2026 it put him at maximum conviction on a high that held for four months.
A tsarin gaba ɗaya yana da kwarin gwiwa sosai: yana sa ran raguwar darajar kuɗin fiat za ta hanzarta kuma yana cewa Maelstrom yana kan matsakaicin haɗari mafi girma. Karanta wannan lambar a matsayin imani kan alkibla, ba kan lokaci ba — tarihinsa na 2026 ya nuna waɗannan matsaloli biyu ne daban.
Nine dated calls taken from his own newsletter, not from press paraphrase — his words, his publication dates, charted against real price. Ten Crypto Trader Digest essays fall inside our price window; these are the ones containing an actual BTC or ETH call. The shape of the year is worth stating up front: his best calls were the ones with no number in them. Two bottom calls landed almost to the day. The one time he named a target and a date-free certainty — “retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion” — he published it on 11 May 2026, at a price Bitcoin did not close above again until 22 September — and the levels he named, $90,000 and $126,000, have still not come.
“It behooves punters to limit the use of leverage and wait for the all-clear from the Fed that it’s time to dump filthy fiat and ape into risky assets with wanton abandon.”
He deliberately refused to pick a side — either the fall from $126,000 to $60,000 was the whole move, or Bitcoin dumps further — and told readers to de-leverage and wait for a Fed all-clear. Both halves are still unresolved. The essay now predates our price window, which begins 8 March, so the chart anchors at $67,340 rather than his publication-day price. From there BTC fell −13.0% to $58,566 on 1 July, ran +28.6% to $86,597 on 22 September, and holds $84,580 (+25.6%). So waiting has cost money, but the drawdown he warned about did arrive. Logged open: the AI banking crisis this essay is built on has not happened in the seven and a half months since.
SourceThis Is Fine — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“That’s not to say it couldn’t spike to $80,000 to $90,000, but for me putting new units of fiat at risk requires an all-clear from the Fed.”
Two things he got right at $74,297: the spike he flagged landed inside his band — BTC printed $82,018 on 11 May, +10.4% — and declining to deploy fresh money was right through the summer, because price then fell −21.2% to $58,566 on 1 July. The later recovery went back into his band, to $86,597 on 22 September (+16.6%), and BTC holds $84,580 (+13.8%). The miss belongs on the same card: in this essay he wrote that he hoped Bitcoin could hold $60,000 in a crash. It did not. BTC closed at $58,566 on 1 July.
SourceNo Trade Zone — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“Bitcoin bottomed earlier this year at $60,000, and with a tailwind of trillions of dollars and yuan yet to be created at its back, retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion.”
This is the one that matters. He called a new all-time high a foregone conclusion, said he expected the rally to turn explosive after punching through $90,000, and said he would take Maelstrom's book to maximum risk — and he published it at $82,018, a close Bitcoin did not see again for more than four months. It fell −28.6% to $58,566 on 1 July. The recovery finally cleared his entry in late September, peaking at $86,597 on 22 September (+5.6%), and BTC holds $84,580 (+3.1%) — but $90,000 has still not been reached, and $126,000 has not been retaken. It stays went against: neither level he named has arrived, and anyone who followed him in sat up to 28.6% under water before getting back to roughly flat. He recanted 28 days later, in writing — see the next call.
SourceThe Butterfly Touch — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“I am confident that Bitcoin will dump then pump.”
Written at $63,274, and it happened in exactly that sequence: BTC dumped −7.4% to $58,566 on 1 July, then pumped +36.9% to $86,597 by 22 September, and holds $84,580 (+33.7%). The same essay contains the sentence most commentators never write — “Yes, I know I proclaimed we wouldn’t see $60,000 Bitcoin again, and obviously I erred, but that’s forecasting for you.” Marked played out on price, and worth noting for the correction.
SourceReality Test — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“As credit expands against a deceleration of AI CAPEX spend, Bitcoin will bottom and begin a secular rise.”
Close to exact. From $63,465, the lowest close that followed was $62,844 on 17 August — just −1.0% below him — before a +36.4% run to $86,597 on 22 September; BTC holds $84,580 (+33.3%). The caveat is on the card because it is in the same essay: his guessed levels were too low. He floated a $60,000 to $70,000 chop with $50,000 downside, and Bitcoin instead broke out above his range within a month and never came close to $50,000. Right on direction, wrong on the numbers.
SourceSituationship — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“My rough target price for Ether by the end of 2026 is $5,000, which is ~2.6x up from current levels.”
His first hard number with a real deadline, and it is still live — 31 December 2026 is under three months out. His own “~2.6x” checks against our data: ETH was $1,859 when he wrote it. It has since run +49.3% to $2,775 on 22 September and holds $2,681 (+44.2%). But $5,000 needs roughly another +87% from here, so he is well behind pace. Logged open, not credited — and note that on 2 September he restated the same end-of-2026 Ether target at $10,000, which is a later call on this page.
SourceSituationship — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“Whether Bessent pumps fast or slow, Bitcoin will continue its rally.”
His position then: Treasury buybacks of longer-dated debt are the new liquidity tap, the next bull market “just began”, and Maelstrom is back at maximum risk. From the $77,712 he wrote at, BTC first slipped −2.7% to $75,590 on 16 September, then ran +11.4% to $86,597 on 22 September — the highest close in our price window — and holds $84,580 (+8.8%). That is the rally continuing, as he said, with a shallow dip on the way. Marked played out as a direction call; he named no target. One disclosure: we date this to the essay's own timestamp of 24 August. Press covering it called it his 25 August essay; anchored to the 25th ($78,974) the call reads −4.3% at the dip, +9.7% at the high and +7.1% now — the same verdict.
SourceSame Same But Different — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“Maelstrom’s preferred cryptos haven’t changed. Our structural Bitcoin long will anchor the portfolio. The more speculative short-term end of 2026 bets are still Ether ($10k price target), Ethena ($0.5 price target), and Ether.fi ($2 price target).”
Read the word still carefully. Four weeks earlier he put his end-of-2026 Ether target at $5,000; here he writes that nothing has changed and prints $10,000 — the number quietly doubled while the deadline stayed 31 December 2026. We log it as its own call rather than an edit of the older one. ETH was $2,418 the day he published, dipped −1.1% to $2,391 on 3 September, ran +14.8% to $2,775 on 22 September, and holds $2,681 (+10.9%). $10,000 needs roughly another +273% in under three months. Logged open, and it is the most demanding number on this page.
SourceAtención — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“This essay should give one confidence that the choppy nature of the crypto markets post the late August mini-pump will end soon. The amount of dollars in the system will continue to grow, and Bitcoin and selected shitcoins will rise in in price.”
His newest essay argues that if the leading AI labs slow down under a “Safety First” banner, the debt that financed their compute goes bad — much of it, he says, sitting on US insurers' books — and Washington must either become the compute buyer of last resort or print money for a bailout. “Either way, we as Bitcoin holders and crypto investors win.” (The doubled “in in” is in the original.) The chart anchors at $81,169 for 21 September; the next daily point is $86,597 (+6.7%), and BTC holds $84,580 (+4.2%). Do not credit him with that jump: he published at 23:07 UTC and our daily points are taken at midnight UTC, so much of the move may have happened before he wrote. Anchored to 22 September instead, the call reads −2.3% now. Twelve days old and with no level named, it is logged open.
SourceSafety First — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.comSakamakon shi ne yadda muka karanta matsayinsa da ya bayyana idan aka kwatanta da ainihin farashi, ba kimarsa ba. An tabbatar da kowace magana kalma-da-kalma a shafin makalar da aka haɗa da ita, kuma an sauke kowace makala sau biyu don kawar da yiwuwar sauke marar kyau. Farashi da kaso duk sun fito daga jerin CoinGecko iri ɗaya da aka zana zanen. Alamun hasashe da ba su kai wata ɗaya ba na iya sauyawa — kuma za su sauya.
Hayes ba ya sayar da sigina ko darussa, kuma yana bayar da jaridar kyauta — amma yana daga cikin muryoyi masu mafi yawan sabani na buƙata a crypto, kuma waɗannan sabani sun sauya sosai a watan Agusta 2026. Yawancinsu shi kansa yake bayyanawa; ga su nan duka a wuri ɗaya.
Yana tafiyar da fayil ɗin ofishin dangi na sayen kawai da aka samar da kuɗin BitMEX ɗinsa, tare da matsayi da aka bayyana a Bitcoin, Ether, Ethena da Ether.fi. Lokacin da ya rubuta cewa yana zuwa “matsakaicin haɗari mafi girma”, yana bayanin ciniki da ya riga ya yi. Makaloli da littafin koyaushe suna nuni zuwa gefe ɗaya.
Tun 18–19 ga Agusta 2026 shi ne CEO na Flop Labs kuma yana ƙaddamar da FLOP, token don ƙididdigar wakilan AI, tare da airdrop na testnet da aka shirya kusan kashi 20% na wadata da genesis block da aka nufa a 2027. Ya ce an ba shi kuɗi da kansa, ba tare da sayarwa ta farko ba kuma ba tare da rabon VC ba. Duk da haka shi mai sharhi ne da ke hasashen ɓarkewar ruwan kuɗi yayin da yake shirin fitar da token cikin wannan ɓarkewa.
Ya kafa kasuwar da ta shahara da leverage 100x, ya amince da laifi a 2022 kan keta Bank Secrecy Act, ya biya $10 miliyan, ya yi watanni shida na tsare a gida da shekaru biyu na sa ido, kuma Shugaba Trump ya yafe masa a Maris 2025. Yanzu yana rubutu da yawa kan manufofin kuɗi da siyasar Amurka. Ka auna wannan yadda ka ga dama.
“Yes, I know I proclaimed we wouldn’t see $60,000 Bitcoin again, and obviously I erred, but that’s forecasting for you.”
08 Jun 2026 · yana amincewa da kuskuren Mayu a rubuce“Bitcoin bottomed earlier this year at $60,000, and with a tailwind of trillions of dollars and yuan yet to be created at its back, retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion.”
11 May 2026 · published at a high that held four months“I am confident that Bitcoin will dump then pump.”
08 Jun 2026 · hasashen da ya tabbata, kuma bisa tsariAn ɗauko maganganun daga majiya nasa na jama'a; ra'ayoyi ne da ya bayyana, ba shawarwari ba.
Hayes yana buga makaloli maimakon bidiyo, don haka bayyanuwarsa ta tsawon lokaci jawabai ne na musamman da tattaunawa a matsayin baƙo a tashoshin wasu. Misalai na baya-bayan nan masu kwanan wata, an tabbatar da kowace rana a shafin bidiyon:
Arthur Hayes Bitcoin 2026 Keynote: 21 Weeks LaterJawabin Bitcoin Magazine — yaƙin Iran, asarar ayyuka saboda AI da Fed.27 Apr 2026
The AI Trade Is Killing Bitcoin? Arthur Hayes Breaks It DownTattaunawar Cointelegraph, kwanaki bayan sauyawarsa a Reality Test.12 Jun 2026
Bitcoin to $200K And AI Is the Next 2008 | Arthur HayesCoin Bureau Podcast — cikakken ra'ayin ɓarkewar bashi na AI.21 Aug 2026
The Godfather Of Crypto Trading: My Final Warning To Bitcoin HoldersAltcoin Daily — matsayinsa na yanzu kan ruwan kuɗi da leverage.23 Aug 2026Arthur Hayes mai zuba jari ne kuma marubucin makala ɗan Amurka, an haife shi a 1985. Ya yi ciniki da derivatives na hannun jari a Deutsche Bank da Citigroup kafin ya kafa kasuwar derivatives ta crypto BitMEX a 2014 tare da Ben Delo da Samuel Reed. Yanzu yana tafiyar da ofishin dangi Maelstrom a matsayin CIO, yana rubuta jaridar Crypto Trader Digest, kuma tun Agusta 2026 shi ne CEO na Flop Labs.
A'a. An gurfanar da shi a Oktoba 2020 kuma ya amince da laifi a Fabrairu 2022 kan keta Bank Secrecy Act, saboda BitMEX yana aiki ba tare da shirin yaƙi da halasta kuɗin haram da sanin abokin ciniki ba yayin da yake hidima ga abokan ciniki na Amurka. An yanke masa hukuncin watanni shida na tsare a gida da shekaru biyu na sa ido kuma ya biya $10 miliyan. Bai yi zaman gidan yari ba, kuma Shugaba Trump ya yafe masa a ƙarshen Maris 2025.
Ba a tabbatar da ita a bainar jama'a ba. Ana yawan kiransa attajiri saboda hannun jarinsa a BitMEX, kuma ofishin danginsa Maelstrom yana riƙe da manyan matsayi a crypto, amma babu lamba da aka tabbatar. Ka ɗauki duk wata lamba da ka gani a matsayin ƙiyasi, ba gaskiya ba.
His direction has been more reliable than his timing. On this page his two bottom calls — 8 June and 4 August 2026 — landed almost to the day, while his most confident target call, published 11 May 2026, came at a price Bitcoin did not close above again for four months, and its $90,000 and $126,000 levels have not been reached. He is also not a neutral observer: he runs a long-only crypto book and is launching his own token. He is a commentator, not a licensed adviser.
Yana hujja cewa yawan kuɗin fiat, ba ƙimar riba ba, shi ne ke sanya farashin Bitcoin — don haka yana bibiyar fitar da bashin Ma'aikatar Kuɗi da sake sayensa, ma'aunin Fed, ƙirƙirar bashi na banki, yen carry trade da bada rance na China, sannan yana riƙe littafin sayen kawai da yake ƙarawa ko ragewa bisa wannan karatu. Yana nuna taka-tsantsan ta hanyar ƙin ƙarawa maimakon sayarwa a gaba, kuma yana kariya da options da put spreads.
Hayes yana ciniki da ra'ayi guda ɗaya — ƙarin kuɗin fiat na zuwa — kuma yana sanya shi da girma. Yaya kusa hankalinka yake? Auna shi da gaske da Trader Passport.
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Nazari na bayanai da ilimi da ya dogara kacokan kan kayan da jama'a ke iya samu — musamman makalolinsa masu kwanan wata na jaridarsa, waɗanda aka haɗa a kowane hasashen da suke goyon baya. Ba shawarar kuɗi ko zuba jari ba ce. Lambobin kusan-kusan ne kuma suna canzawa koyaushe. Spotted an error, or are you Arthur? Gabatar da gyara →
An tabbatar da masu amfani · An ambaci tushe a sama · Hanyar ba da maki · An sabunta 3 October 2026
