@CryptoHayes
Wanda ya kafa BitMEX, yanzu CIO na ofishin danginsa Maelstrom — kuma marubucin makala mafi shahara kan makro a duniyar crypto. Duk tsarinsa yana shiga cikin jimla ɗaya: yawan kuɗin fiat, ba farashin kuɗi ba, shi ne ke sanya farashin Bitcoin. Yana buga wannan a cikin makaloli masu kwanan wata, masu lamba, kuma masu magana ta zahiri da sunansa — shi ya sa ake iya duba shi.
A taƙaice. Arthur Hayes yana rubuta jaridar makro da aka fi karantawa a kasuwar crypto, Crypto Trader Digest, kuma yana tafiyar da Maelstrom, ofishin danginsa da aka gina kan dukiyarsa ta BitMEX. Ra'ayinsa ba kasafai yake canzawa ba: bankunan tsakiya da ma'aikatun kuɗi za su ci gaba da samar da kuɗin fiat don biyan gibi, yaƙe-yaƙe da gina AI, kuma Bitcoin ita ce dukiyar da ta fi jin wannan faɗaɗa. Abin da ke canzawa — wani lokaci da ƙarfi — shi ne lokacinsa. A shekarar 2026 ya sauya daga gaya wa masu karatu su zauna a hankali, zuwa bayyana cewa sabon matsayi mafi girma na tarihi “foregone conclusion” ne daidai a kan ƙwanƙolin shekarar, zuwa amincewa a rubuce bayan makonni huɗu cewa ya yi kuskure, har zuwa hango ƙasan kasuwa kusan a daidai ranarsa. Yana buga ɓangarorin biyu, wanda ya fi abin da yawancin mutane ke yi.
An haifi Hayes a 1985, ya kammala digiri a fannin tattalin arziki a Wharton a 2008, kuma ya yi ciniki da derivatives na hannun jari a Deutsche Bank kafin ya koma Citigroup a matsayin ɗan kasuwa na delta one a Hong Kong. A 2014 ya kafa BitMEX tare da Ben Delo da Samuel Reed. Perpetual swap na kasuwar mai leverage 100x ya zama abin koyi ga cinikin leverage a crypto kuma ya sa dukkansu ukun su zama masu arziki sosai.
Ya kuma ƙare a shari'ar laifi. An gurfanar da su ukun a Oktoba 2020, kuma Hayes ya amince da laifi a Fabrairu 2022 kan keta Bank Secrecy Act — BitMEX bai gudanar da shirin yaƙi da halasta kuɗin haram da sanin abokin ciniki ba yayin da yake hidima ga abokan ciniki na Amurka. An yanke masa hukuncin watanni shida na tsare a gida da shekaru biyu na sa ido kuma ya amince ya biya $10 miliyan. Bai yi zaman gidan yari ba. Shugaba Trump ya yafe wa Hayes, Delo da Reed a ƙarshen Maris 2025. Duk wani karatun rubuce-rubucensa kan manufofin kuɗi da ƙa'idoji ya kamata ya ɗauki wannan tarihin tare da shi.
Tun bar BitMEX yana tafiyar da Maelstrom, littafin ofishin dangi na sayen kawai mai matsayi na farko a tokens ciki har da Ethena da Ether.fi, kuma yana buga Crypto Trader Digest kusan kowane mako ɗaya zuwa uku. A Agusta 2026 ya dawo daga hutun ritaya don zama CEO na Flop Labs, wadda ke shirin token FLOP a matsayin kuɗi don ƙididdigar wakilan AI — an sanar da shi a makalarsa ta 19 ga Agusta, tare da airdrop na testnet kusan kashi 20% na wadata kuma ba tare da sayarwa ta farko ba. Yanzu ya zama mai gudanarwa mai token da zai ƙaddamar, ba mai sharhi kaɗai ba.
Sources: cryptohayes.substack.com · x.com/CryptoHayes · dated public interviews and press
Ruwan kuɗi daga sama zuwa ƙasa, ta hanyar derivatives. Hayes yana farawa daga bututun kasuwa — fitar da bashin Ma'aikatar Kuɗi ta Amurka da sake sayensa, ma'aunin Fed, ƙirƙirar bashi na banki, Bankin Japan da yen carry trade, bada rance na China — kuma yana ɗaukar Bitcoin a matsayin abin da ya fi saurin amsawa ga jimillar samar da kuɗin fiat. Yana faɗin sa a fili: yana ganin yawan kuɗi shi ne ke ƙayyade farashin Bitcoin, ba ƙimar riba ba. Littafinsa na sayen kawai ne kuma babba, don haka yana nuna taka-tsantsan ta hanyar ƙin ƙarawa maimakon sayarwa a gaba, kuma yana kariya da put spreads da options maimakon sayar da spot. Ƙarfin yana cikin tsarin kansa: a tsarin gaskiya ya yi gaskiya cewa ruwan kuɗi zai faɗaɗa, kuma makalolinsa suna ambaton hanyar kafin kasuwa ta sanya ta cikin farashi. Rauninsa shi ne lokacin shiga — tsarin da ke cewa “ba dade ba jima” yana ba da hujja ga kowace saye, kuma a watan Mayu 2026 ya sa shi a mafi girman imani daidai a kan farashi mafi girma na shekarar.
A tsarin gaba ɗaya yana da kwarin gwiwa sosai: yana sa ran raguwar darajar kuɗin fiat za ta hanzarta kuma yana cewa Maelstrom yana kan matsakaicin haɗari mafi girma. Karanta wannan lambar a matsayin imani kan alkibla, ba kan lokaci ba — tarihinsa na 2026 ya nuna waɗannan matsaloli biyu ne daban.
Hasashe bakwai masu kwanan wata da aka ɗauko daga jaridarsa, ba daga sake bayanin manema labarai ba — kalamansa, kwanakin bugawarsa, an zana su kan ainihin farashi. Makaloli goma na Crypto Trader Digest sun shiga cikin taga farashinmu; waɗannan su ne waɗanda ke ɗauke da ainihin hasashe kan BTC ko ETH. Ya kamata a faɗi siffar shekarar tun farko: mafi kyawun hasashensa su ne waɗanda ba su da lamba ko ɗaya. Hasashe biyu kan ƙasan kasuwa sun yi daidai kusan a ranar. Lokaci ɗaya da ya ambaci maƙasudi ya kuma bayyana shi tabbatacce — “retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion” — ya buga shi a 11 ga Mayu 2026, farashi mafi girma a duk wannan tagar zane.
“It behooves punters to limit the use of leverage and wait for the all-clear from the Fed that it’s time to dump filthy fiat and ape into risky assets with wanton abandon.”
Da gangan ya ƙi zaɓar gefe — ko dai faɗuwa daga $126,000 zuwa $60,000 ita ce dukkan motsi, ko kuma Bitcoin za ta ƙara faɗuwa — kuma ya gaya wa masu karatu su rage leverage su jira alamar tsaro daga Fed. Ɓangarorin biyu har yanzu ba a warware su ba. BTC ya tashi +19.1% zuwa $82,018, sannan ya faɗi −14.9% zuwa $58,566, kuma yanzu yana +13.4% a $78,104 idan aka kwatanta da $68,860 lokacin da ya rubuta. Don haka jira ya jawo asara, amma faɗuwar da ya yi gargaɗi a kai ta zo da gaske. An yi rikodinsa a matsayin a buɗe: rikicin banki na AI da wannan makala ta ginu a kai bai faru ba a cikin watanni shida da suka wuce.
SourceThis Is Fine — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“That’s not to say it couldn’t spike to $80,000 to $90,000, but for me putting new units of fiat at risk requires an all-clear from the Fed.”
Abubuwa biyu ya yi daidai a $74,297: hauhawar da ya nuna ta faɗa cikin kewayonsa — BTC ya buga $82,018, +10.4% — kuma ƙin sanya sabon kuɗi ya yi daidai, domin farashin ya faɗi −21.2% zuwa $58,566 kuma a yau yana +5.1% kawai. Kuskuren ma yana kan katin guda: a wannan makala ya rubuta cewa yana fatan Bitcoin za ta riƙe $60,000 a lokacin faɗuwa. Bai riƙe ba. BTC ya rufe a $58,566 a 1 ga Yuli.
SourceNo Trade Zone — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“Bitcoin bottomed earlier this year at $60,000, and with a tailwind of trillions of dollars and yuan yet to be created at its back, retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion.”
Wannan shi ne mai muhimmanci. Ya kira sabon matsayi mafi girma na tarihi abin da ya riga ya tabbata, ya ce yana sa ran hauhawar za ta zama mai fashewa bayan ta ratsa $90,000, kuma ya ce zai kai littafin Maelstrom zuwa matsakaicin haɗari mafi girma — kuma ya buga shi a $82,018, farashi mafi girma a duk wannan zanen. Bitcoin bai taɓa yin ciniki sama da haka ba. Ya faɗi −28.6% zuwa $58,566, kuma a yau yana −4.8%. Ba a taɓa kai $90,000 ba; ba a taɓa dawo da $126,000 ba. Ya janye shi kwanaki 28 bayan haka, a rubuce — duba hasashe na gaba.
SourceThe Butterfly Touch — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“I am confident that Bitcoin will dump then pump.”
An rubuta a $63,274, kuma ya faru daidai da wannan tsari: BTC ya faɗi −7.4% zuwa $58,566 a 1 ga Yuli, sannan ya tashi +26.9% zuwa $80,268 zuwa 28 ga Agusta, kuma yanzu yana +23.4%. Wannan makala ta ƙunshi jimlar da yawancin masu sharhi ba sa taɓa rubutawa — “Yes, I know I proclaimed we wouldn’t see $60,000 Bitcoin again, and obviously I erred, but that’s forecasting for you.” An sanya masa alamar ya tabbata bisa farashi, kuma abin lura ne saboda gyaran kansa.
SourceReality Test — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“As credit expands against a deceleration of AI CAPEX spend, Bitcoin will bottom and begin a secular rise.”
Kusan daidai. Daga $63,465, mafi ƙarancin rufewa da ya biyo baya shi ne $62,844 a 17 ga Agusta — −1.0% kawai ƙasa da shi — kafin gudu na +26.5% zuwa $80,268; BTC yanzu yana +23.1%. Gargaɗin yana kan katin domin yana cikin wannan makala: matakan da ya zata sun yi ƙasa da yawa. Ya ambaci zaman gefe tsakanin $60,000 zuwa $70,000 da haɗarin faɗuwa zuwa $50,000, amma Bitcoin ya karya sama da kewayonsa cikin wata ɗaya kuma bai taɓa kusanci $50,000 ba. Daidai kan alkibla, kuskure kan lambobi.
SourceSituationship — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“My rough target price for Ether by the end of 2026 is $5,000, which is ~2.6x up from current levels.”
Lambarsa mai ƙarfi guda ɗaya da ke da ainihin ranar ƙarshe, kuma har yanzu tana raye — sauran watanni huɗu zuwa 31 ga Disamba 2026. Nasa “~2.6x” ya yi daidai da bayananmu: ETH yana $1,859 lokacin da ya rubuta. Tun daga lokacin ya gudu +32.2% zuwa $2,458, tare da matsayi mafi girma na $2,515 (+35.3%). Amma isa $5,000 na buƙatar kusan ƙarin +103% daga nan cikin watanni huɗu, don haka yana baya sosai. An yi rikodinsa a matsayin a buɗe, ba a ƙidaya shi ba.
SourceSituationship — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“Whether Bessent pumps fast or slow, Bitcoin will continue its rally.”
Matsayinsa na yanzu: sake sayen bashin dogon lokaci na Ma'aikatar Kuɗi shi ne sabon famfon ruwan kuɗi, kasuwar hauhawa ta gaba “just began”, kuma Maelstrom ya koma matsakaicin haɗari mafi girma. Hasashen yana da kwanaki shida kuma bai warware ba — BTC yana +0.5% daga $77,712 lokacin da ya rubuta, tare da matsayi mafi girma na $80,268 (+3.3%). Bayani ɗaya: mun sanya masa kwanan wata bisa alamar lokacin makalar kanta, 24 ga Agusta. Manema labarai da suka ruwaito shi sun kira ta makalar 25 ga Agusta, kuma idan aka daure ta ga ranar 25 ($78,974) hasashen ya karanta −1.1%. Ta kowace hanya, da wuri sosai a kimanta.
SourceSame Same But Different — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.comSakamakon shi ne yadda muka karanta matsayinsa da ya bayyana idan aka kwatanta da ainihin farashi, ba kimarsa ba. An tabbatar da kowace magana kalma-da-kalma a shafin makalar da aka haɗa da ita, kuma an sauke kowace makala sau biyu don kawar da yiwuwar sauke marar kyau. Farashi da kaso duk sun fito daga jerin CoinGecko iri ɗaya da aka zana zanen. Alamun hasashe da ba su kai wata ɗaya ba na iya sauyawa — kuma za su sauya.
Hayes ba ya sayar da sigina ko darussa, kuma yana bayar da jaridar kyauta — amma yana daga cikin muryoyi masu mafi yawan sabani na buƙata a crypto, kuma waɗannan sabani sun sauya sosai a watan Agusta 2026. Yawancinsu shi kansa yake bayyanawa; ga su nan duka a wuri ɗaya.
Yana tafiyar da fayil ɗin ofishin dangi na sayen kawai da aka samar da kuɗin BitMEX ɗinsa, tare da matsayi da aka bayyana a Bitcoin, Ether, Ethena da Ether.fi. Lokacin da ya rubuta cewa yana zuwa “matsakaicin haɗari mafi girma”, yana bayanin ciniki da ya riga ya yi. Makaloli da littafin koyaushe suna nuni zuwa gefe ɗaya.
Tun 18–19 ga Agusta 2026 shi ne CEO na Flop Labs kuma yana ƙaddamar da FLOP, token don ƙididdigar wakilan AI, tare da airdrop na testnet da aka shirya kusan kashi 20% na wadata da genesis block da aka nufa a 2027. Ya ce an ba shi kuɗi da kansa, ba tare da sayarwa ta farko ba kuma ba tare da rabon VC ba. Duk da haka shi mai sharhi ne da ke hasashen ɓarkewar ruwan kuɗi yayin da yake shirin fitar da token cikin wannan ɓarkewa.
Ya kafa kasuwar da ta shahara da leverage 100x, ya amince da laifi a 2022 kan keta Bank Secrecy Act, ya biya $10 miliyan, ya yi watanni shida na tsare a gida da shekaru biyu na sa ido, kuma Shugaba Trump ya yafe masa a Maris 2025. Yanzu yana rubutu da yawa kan manufofin kuɗi da siyasar Amurka. Ka auna wannan yadda ka ga dama.
“Yes, I know I proclaimed we wouldn’t see $60,000 Bitcoin again, and obviously I erred, but that’s forecasting for you.”
08 Jun 2026 · yana amincewa da kuskuren Mayu a rubuce“Bitcoin bottomed earlier this year at $60,000, and with a tailwind of trillions of dollars and yuan yet to be created at its back, retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion.”
11 May 2026 · an buga shi daidai kan ƙwanƙolin shekarar“I am confident that Bitcoin will dump then pump.”
08 Jun 2026 · hasashen da ya tabbata, kuma bisa tsariAn ɗauko maganganun daga majiya nasa na jama'a; ra'ayoyi ne da ya bayyana, ba shawarwari ba.
Hayes yana buga makaloli maimakon bidiyo, don haka bayyanuwarsa ta tsawon lokaci jawabai ne na musamman da tattaunawa a matsayin baƙo a tashoshin wasu. Misalai na baya-bayan nan masu kwanan wata, an tabbatar da kowace rana a shafin bidiyon:
Arthur Hayes Bitcoin 2026 Keynote: 21 Weeks LaterJawabin Bitcoin Magazine — yaƙin Iran, asarar ayyuka saboda AI da Fed.27 Apr 2026
The AI Trade Is Killing Bitcoin? Arthur Hayes Breaks It DownTattaunawar Cointelegraph, kwanaki bayan sauyawarsa a Reality Test.12 Jun 2026
Bitcoin to $200K And AI Is the Next 2008 | Arthur HayesCoin Bureau Podcast — cikakken ra'ayin ɓarkewar bashi na AI.21 Aug 2026
The Godfather Of Crypto Trading: My Final Warning To Bitcoin HoldersAltcoin Daily — matsayinsa na yanzu kan ruwan kuɗi da leverage.23 Aug 2026Hayes yana gefen makro-ruwan kuɗi na crypto, kuma waɗanda ya dace a karanta tare da shi su ne waɗanda ke gudanar da wannan hujja ta bututun kasuwa da wasu kayan aiki — ko waɗanda ke ɗaya ɓangaren cinikinsa. Hanyoyin haɗi na fayil suna haɗa su yayin da bayanan ke ƙaruwa.
Tsarin da ya fi kusa — ruwan kuɗi na duniya a matsayin abin da kaɗai ke motsa crypto. Pal yana hujja da zane-zane da zagayowa, Hayes kuma da injinan Ma'aikatar Kuɗi da bankunan tsakiya.
Ita ma tana farawa daga ruwan kuɗin fiat, amma ta fi taka-tsantsan kan lokaci kuma ba ta taɓa amfani da leverage. Kwatance mai amfani ga Hayes: tushe ɗaya, yatsan jawo abin harbi mai jinkiri sosai.
Bayyanar tsarin baitulmalin kamfani na wannan ra'ayin raguwar darajar kuɗi. Hayes ya rubuta kai tsaye kan sayar da Bitcoin da Strategy ke yi a matsayin nauyi kan farashi.
Jaridarsa — tushen farko na kowane hasashe a wannan shafi.
Arthur Hayes mai zuba jari ne kuma marubucin makala ɗan Amurka, an haife shi a 1985. Ya yi ciniki da derivatives na hannun jari a Deutsche Bank da Citigroup kafin ya kafa kasuwar derivatives ta crypto BitMEX a 2014 tare da Ben Delo da Samuel Reed. Yanzu yana tafiyar da ofishin dangi Maelstrom a matsayin CIO, yana rubuta jaridar Crypto Trader Digest, kuma tun Agusta 2026 shi ne CEO na Flop Labs.
A'a. An gurfanar da shi a Oktoba 2020 kuma ya amince da laifi a Fabrairu 2022 kan keta Bank Secrecy Act, saboda BitMEX yana aiki ba tare da shirin yaƙi da halasta kuɗin haram da sanin abokin ciniki ba yayin da yake hidima ga abokan ciniki na Amurka. An yanke masa hukuncin watanni shida na tsare a gida da shekaru biyu na sa ido kuma ya biya $10 miliyan. Bai yi zaman gidan yari ba, kuma Shugaba Trump ya yafe masa a ƙarshen Maris 2025.
Ba a tabbatar da ita a bainar jama'a ba. Ana yawan kiransa attajiri saboda hannun jarinsa a BitMEX, kuma ofishin danginsa Maelstrom yana riƙe da manyan matsayi a crypto, amma babu lamba da aka tabbatar. Ka ɗauki duk wata lamba da ka gani a matsayin ƙiyasi, ba gaskiya ba.
Alkiblarsa ta fi lokacinsa dogaro. A wannan shafi hasashensa biyu kan ƙasan kasuwa — 8 ga Yuni da 4 ga Agusta 2026 — sun yi daidai kusan a ranar, yayin da hasashensa mafi ƙarfin gwiwa kan maƙasudi, wanda aka buga a 11 ga Mayu 2026, ya faɗo kan farashi mafi girma na duk tagar kuma har yanzu ba a kai shi ba. Har ila yau ba mai lura mai tsaka-tsaki ba ne: yana tafiyar da littafin crypto na sayen kawai kuma yana ƙaddamar da token nasa. Mai sharhi ne, ba mai ba da shawara mai lasisi ba.
Yana hujja cewa yawan kuɗin fiat, ba ƙimar riba ba, shi ne ke sanya farashin Bitcoin — don haka yana bibiyar fitar da bashin Ma'aikatar Kuɗi da sake sayensa, ma'aunin Fed, ƙirƙirar bashi na banki, yen carry trade da bada rance na China, sannan yana riƙe littafin sayen kawai da yake ƙarawa ko ragewa bisa wannan karatu. Yana nuna taka-tsantsan ta hanyar ƙin ƙarawa maimakon sayarwa a gaba, kuma yana kariya da options da put spreads.
Hayes yana ciniki da ra'ayi guda ɗaya — ƙarin kuɗin fiat na zuwa — kuma yana sanya shi da girma. Yaya kusa hankalinka yake? Auna shi da gaske da Trader Passport.
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Nazari na bayanai da ilimi da ya dogara kacokan kan kayan da jama'a ke iya samu — musamman makalolinsa masu kwanan wata na jaridarsa, waɗanda aka haɗa a kowane hasashen da suke goyon baya. Ba shawarar kuɗi ko zuba jari ba ce. Lambobin kusan-kusan ne kuma suna canzawa koyaushe. Spotted an error, or are you Arthur? Gabatar da gyara →
An tabbatar da masu amfani · An ambaci tushe a sama · Hanyar ba da maki · An sabunta 30 August 2026
