@willywoo
The analyst who made “on-chain” a category. Woo doesn't read candles — he reads where money actually moves: investor flows, realised prices, the cost basis of recent buyers. Through most of 2026 that model kept him bearish while the rest of crypto looked for a bottom, and the price mostly agreed with him. Where it didn't, it didn't by a wide margin — his 46k–54k bottom zone never printed. In September, with long-term liquidity returning, he turned: on 16 September he put 90% odds on the bottom being in.
Вкратце. Willy Woo is one of the original Bitcoin on-chain analysts — creator of the NVT ratio (“Bitcoin's P/E”), publisher of the Woobull chart library, and author of the weekly Bitcoin Vector Lite letter on Substack. His framework is deliberately not technical analysis: he models investor liquidity flows and compares price against on-chain cost bases (short-term-holder price, realised price, the CVDD floor) to say where the market is in its cycle. For most of 2026 that model made him one of the most consistently bearish major voices — and, for the levels that mattered, largely right: he called the March rally a bull trap and it was rejected exactly where he said. He is also on record with targets that never arrived, from $250k in 2021 to a 46k–54k bottom this year — a zone he effectively retired in September, when he called the bottom in at 90% odds.
Ву пришёл на рынки из программирования — опубликованные профили описывают его как программиста, родившегося в Гонконге и выросшего в Новой Зеландии, который строил и продавал стартапы, прежде чем перейти в трейдинг, и купил свой первый биткоин в конце 2013 года. Имя ему сделала не сделка, а метрика: в 2017 году он популяризировал коэффициент NVT — стоимость сети, делённую на объём транзакций, поданную как «Bitcoin's P/E ratio». Он стал первым широко используемым инструментом ончейн-оценки, а выросшая вокруг него библиотека графиков Woobull до сих пор остаётся стандартным справочником. Сегодня он еженедельно публикует Bitcoin Vector Lite на Substack — «views into BTC's underlying structure through the lens of investor flows» — с платным уровнем позади.
The record cuts both ways and the misses are large. On 29 April 2021 he told SALT Talks that Bitcoin “could reach $250K to $300K by the end of that cycle”, later stretching it to $300K–$400K on institutional inflows; Bitcoin topped near $69,000 that November. In September 2025, with BTC just off a $124,457 record, he suggested it “could race up to $140,000–$160,000” — while adding he couldn't tell. It never did. And on 11 January 2026 he posted “I'm bullish BTC late Jan through Feb but presently bearish for 2026”: the bearish half aged well, the bullish half did not — Bitcoin fell from $89,212 on 29 January to $67,017 by 1 March, −25% straight through the window he was bullish on. That January post sits just outside the chart below; the seven calls that follow are all inside it.
Sources: x.com/willywoo (verified via X syndication) · woobull.com · willywoo.substack.com · Bitcoin.com News · Yahoo Finance
Сначала потоки, потом цена. Единица анализа для Ву — капитал, а не свеча: сколько реальных денег входит в биткоин или выходит из него и как это соотносится с ценовым импульсом, который эти деньги должны поддерживать. Постоянные инструменты — ончейн-себестоимость: цена краткосрочных держателей (точка безубыточности покупателей за последние 155 дней), реализованная цена и пол CVDD — плюс его собственные модели потоков инвесторов и взгляд на межрыночный риск (волатильность акций, макроликвидность). Это даёт ему структуру и терпение: он может сказать «Still weeks more in this mid bear consolidation» — и действительно так думать. Слабость симметрична. Модели потоков хороши в определении режима (медвежий или бычий) и плохи в масштабе — его направленные прогнозы держались куда лучше, чем конкретные цифры при них.
Bearish on 2026 from January through the summer — his flow models had liquidity waning against price since January 2025. September is where that changed. On 6 September 2026 he flagged Bitcoin decoupling from equities as it did in 2015, and on 16 September he put the probability that the bottom is in at 90%, calling the market an early bull structure on returning long-term investor liquidity. His longer view is unchanged: Bitcoin in seven figures, but over a 12–16 year horizon.
Seven dated 2026 posts, charted against real price from the day he said them. Every quote below was pulled from X's own syndication endpoint or from the dated article that carries it — nothing is paraphrased. Woo trades in regimes and levels rather than one-line targets, so each card scores the specific claim he made: did the rejection happen where he said, did the level break, did the bottom print in the zone. He was right on the shape of the market in Feb–April and wrong on how deep it would go; the two newest cards, from September, are the first in this window pointing up — ending with his call that the bottom is in.
“This bearish sell down by investors seems to have exhausted, which gives price a repreive to consolidate sideways for maybe a month, even a rebound to mid 70s, which would likely to be rejected.”
A three-part call, and all three parts happened. His 27 February post has since rolled out of our 210-day price window, so the chart now anchors at the first covered close, $65,824 on 2 March, and the percentages here run from there. Bitcoin consolidated sideways for roughly a month, rebounded into the mid-70s — $74,679 on 17 March, +13.5% — and was rejected there, back to $65,947 (+0.2%) by 30 March. It later fell as far as $58,566 (−11.0%), then ran +31.6% to $86,597 on 22 September and holds $84,359 (+28.2%). The typo in “repreive” is his; we quote posts as written.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 27 February 2026↗ x.com“BTC sold off WAY TOO FAST in this early bear market and current conditions are setting up to test mid-80s which is the cost basis of short term investors.”
Resolved — on his terms, but late. The framing was right: he said the rally was a bull trap and “NOT me saying the bottom is in”, and from $67,340 BTC rallied, rolled over and cut to $58,566 (−13.0%) on 1 July. The target took far longer than the setup implied. The May rally stalled at $82,018 (+21.8%), and the mid-80s short-term-holder cost basis he named was only tested on 22 September, at $86,597 (+28.6%) — six and a half months after the post, with a deeper low in between. Both halves have now happened, so we move this card from open to played out; price holds $84,359 (+25.3%).
Source‘Bull Trap Forming’ — Willy Woo Says Bottom Not In for Bitcoin (Bitcoin.com News, 9 Mar 2026)↗ news.bitcoin.com“I’d agree with this picture with the rejection at STH price which is 84k and dropping each day. Still weeks more in this mid bear consolidation.”
He named the level and the duration. BTC was $71,304; it was rejected immediately, down to $65,947 (−7.5%) in four days, and the “mid bear consolidation” ran for months rather than weeks. Through that whole stretch it never reached the 84k short-term-holder line he flagged as the ceiling — the summer high was $82,018 (+15.0%) on 11 May — before sliding to $58,566 (−17.9%) on 1 July. Bitcoin only closed above 84k on 22 September, six months later; it ran +21.4% to $86,597 and holds $84,359 (+18.3%). The call was about the spring, and on that horizon the level held.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 26 March 2026↗ x.com“Old school onchain models suggest a BTC bottom between 46k-54k. Also hints at how much time we have to wait.”
His most specific number, and the one that has gone wrong. From $65,947 he was pointing 18–30% lower, with the CVDD floor model at 45.5k. Bitcoin never got there. The deepest close since is $58,566 on 1 July, −11.2% from his post and 8.5% above the top of his zone — and price has since run +31.3% to $86,597 and holds $84,359 (+27.9%). A fresh leg down could still validate it, but on 16 September Woo himself put 90% odds on the bottom already being in (last card below), which leaves this zone with few defenders.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 30 March 2026↗ x.com“The next test for BTC is cleanly breaking the cost basis of recent investors (79k). I give it 30% odds on doing this on this attempt.”
A conditional call, and the condition failed the way he warned it might. BTC was $77,367. It did break 79k — the 30% branch — peaking at $82,018 (+6.0%) on 11 May. But he had added that a structural bottom only becomes likely “if BTC manages to hold this price level above $65K and not break down”, and that “the next 3-6 weeks will be telling”. It broke down: nine weeks later Bitcoin closed at $58,566, −24.3%. No structural bottom in that window, exactly as he framed it. Price has since run +11.9% to $86,597 and holds $84,359 (+9.0%).
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 28 April 2026↗ x.com“It's almost been a decade since the last time this happened... The last time BTC decoupled from stocks to this degree was 2015 (prelude to the 2017 bull market).”
The first constructive post of the whole window. BTC closed at $79,822, near the top of the range it broke into in late August — up from $69,291 on 20 August. Read the claim precisely: it is not a price target but a regime analogue, equities and Bitcoin pulling apart the way they did in 2015, which he labels the prelude to the 2017 bull market. Price dipped to $75,590 (−5.3%) on 16 September, then ran +8.5% to $86,597 on 22 September and holds $84,359 (+5.7%). That leans his way, but three weeks cannot settle a claim about a multi-year decoupling. It also sits awkwardly beside his own 46k–54k bottom call above, and we will not reconcile the two for him. Open until price picks a side for longer.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 6 September 2026↗ x.com“I put the probability the bottom is in at 90%. We are in an early bull market structure based on long term investor liquidity returning.”
The turn, stated as a number. BTC closed at $75,590 that day, then ran +14.6% to $86,597 on 22 September and holds $84,359 (+11.6%). Read the claim precisely: it is not that $75k was the low, but that the cycle bottom is already behind the market — on this chart that is $58,566 on 1 July, 8.5% above the top of the 46k–54k zone he pointed to in March, which this post quietly retires. He gave no time frame and no invalidation level. As of 27 September price agrees with him; a close back under the July low would settle it against him. Open.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 16 September 2026↗ x.comИтоги — это наша оценка его заявленного утверждения по реальной цене CoinGecko, а не его собственный подсчёт. Цены — это закрытия; «минимум после» — самое низкое закрытие между прогнозом и сегодняшним днём. Отметки «открыто» могут поменяться по мере развития цикла: прогноз зоны дна окончательно неверен только тогда, когда цикл окончательно завершён.
Ву продаёт исследования, а не сигналы или токены — структура чище, чем у большинства в этом каталоге. Но и она создаёт стимул, который стоит назвать: платное письмо о поиске дна цикла наиболее ценно, пока дно ещё впереди.
Bitcoin Vector Lite на Substack бесплатен с платным уровнем; более глубокие модели потоков находятся за ним. Подписки — видимый бизнес.
woobull.com и коэффициент NVT бесплатны уже много лет — они работают как вершина воронки и как причина, по которой его вообще цитируют.
Вот раскрытие, которое имеет значение. В мае 2023 года Syz Group объявила о SyzCrest Digital Uncorrelated, поддержанном банком крипто-хедж-фонде, запущенном совместно с Ву и CMCC Global, описав его как управляющего партнёра CMCC Global & Crest Fund, советника фонда Ama и генерального партнёра S2F Fund; опубликованные профили также перечисляют инвестиции на посевной стадии в криптокомпании. Эти роли взяты из прессы 2023 года, и мы не подтвердили, какие из них актуальны сейчас. Позиции не раскрываются пост за постом, поэтому относитесь к любому конкретному прогнозу как к потенциально связанному с портфелем, которого вы не видите.
“BTC MOVES TO A 6-8 YEAR CYCLE? BTC has been locked into the gravity of a 4 year orbit... it was subject to strong internal forces of its halvening... a clockwork 4yr supply rate shock. Meanwhile TradFi is on a 6-8 year short term debt cycle.”
03 Sep 2026 · весь его подход в одном посте“3 things happen at the end of bear markets. 1) price cleanly breaks the cost basis of recent investors (circles). 2) idle smoking of hopium gives way to rabid clicking of the BUY button chasing the price 3) this raises the cost basis (red line transitions to green)”
05 Apr 2026 · длинный горизонт под медвежьим годом“I could see a future where BTC trades sideways for 8-12 yrs remaining 5-6 figures, then 12-16 yrs out a god candle to multiple 7 figures.”
05 Apr 2026 · наполовину прав — бычья половина промахнулась на 25%“I’m bullish BTC late Jan through Feb but presently bearish for 2026.”
11 Jan 2026 · half right — the bullish half missed by 25%Цитаты транскрибированы из его собственных публичных видео; высказанные мнения, а не рекомендации.
Ву публикуется письменно, а не на камеру — графики Woobull и еженедельное письмо Bitcoin Vector Lite. Его видеоархив — это чужие подкасты. Показательные появления:
Bitcoin Needs To Adapt Now | With Willy WooLook Into Bitcoin — записано через несколько дней после прогноза дна 46k–54k выше.10 Apr 2026
The Bull Market, Institutional Adoption & 2026 Recession? | Willy WooWhat Bitcoin Did — где он впервые обозначил 2026 год как настоящее испытание цикла.26 Aug 2025
Trader legend Willy Woo: A 80% Bitcoin drawdown again is possibleLess Noise More Signal — сценарий снижения за полгода до того, как он ему понадобился.25 Sep 2025
Bitcoin Whales Dumping As Liquidity Crisis Hits | Willy Woo Reveals The EndgameThe Wolf Of All Streets — со Скоттом Мелкером, чьё досье тоже есть в этом каталоге.14 Sep 2025Биткоин-аналитик ончейна, наиболее известный популяризацией коэффициента NVT — стоимости сети, делённой на объём транзакций, поданной как «Bitcoin's P/E ratio» — и библиотекой графиков Woobull. Он пишет еженедельное письмо Bitcoin Vector Lite на Substack, у него примерно 1.1M подписчиков в X, где он теперь публикуется как @willywoo (ранее @woonomic).
For most of 2026 he was bearish: his on-chain models pointed to a bottom between $46,000 and $54,000, with the CVDD floor near $45,500 when he said it in March. That zone has not printed — Bitcoin's lowest close since was $58,566 on 1 July. On 16 September 2026 he reversed, putting the probability that the bottom is in at 90% and calling the market an early bull structure. Separately, he has floated a much longer-horizon view of Bitcoin trading sideways for 8–12 years before a move to seven figures.
Смешанно, и закономерность устойчива: силён в направлении, слаб в масштабе. В этом окне его февральский прогноз отвержения и мартовский уровень сопротивления сбылись точно, а его апрельское прочтение, что элементы для дна ещё не на месте, подтвердилось падением на 24%. Но его зона дна $46k–$54k так и не наступила, его цель 2021 года $250k–$300k промахнулась примерно вчетверо, а его пост от января 2026 года — «I'm bullish BTC late Jan through Feb but presently bearish for 2026» — отправил бычью половину прямо в падение на 25%.
Самая известная метрика Ву: стоимость сети биткоина (рыночная капитализация), делённая на долларовый объём транзакций в сети. Высокое значение говорит о том, что цена убежала вперёд экономического использования сети; низкое — об обратном. Он представил его как ончейн-аналог отношения цены к прибыли у акций, и это открыло дверь всей области ончейн-аналитики.
Ву игнорирует свечу и идёт за деньгами — потоки, себестоимость и терпение пересидеть месяцы боковика. Насколько близок ваш инстинкт? Измерьте по-настоящему с Trader Passport.
Теперь выясните, что реально окупается. Проверьте своё преимущество на живых рыночных данных — без риска капитала — в бесплатном турнире BuyCrypt с реальными призами.
Информационно-образовательный анализ, основанный исключительно на общедоступных материалах — его собственных датированных постах в X (дословно захваченных через публичный эндпойнт синдикации X) и датированных сторонних публикациях, ссылки на которые есть в каждом прогнозе. Не является финансовой или инвестиционной рекомендацией. Цифры приблизительны и постоянно меняются. Spotted an error, or are you Willy? Отправить исправление →
Проверенные аккаунты · Источники указаны выше · Методология оценки · Обновлено 27 September 2026
