@fundstrat
Pihak bullish yang paling sering dikutip di televisi keuangan — dan salah satu dari sedikit orang yang menyertakan angka dan tanggal. Lee memimpin strategi ekuitas di J.P. Morgan sebelum ikut mendirikan Fundstrat, dan kini menjadi ketua dewan sebuah perusahaan treasury Ethereum sambil menyebut Bitcoin ke $250.000. Justru kombinasi itulah yang membuat rekam jejaknya layak dipetakan — dan layak dibaca dengan konflik kepentingannya terpampang jelas.
Singkatnya. Tom Lee is a Wall Street strategist, not a crypto trader: Chief Equity Strategist at J.P. Morgan from 2007 to 2014, then co-founder and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, and since 30 June 2025 chairman of BitMine Immersion Technologies — a company whose entire business is holding Ethereum. He is on CNBC constantly, he gives round-number targets, and he almost never gives an invalidation level. Charted over the last seven months the pattern is consistent and unflattering in a specific way: he is early, repeatedly and expensively. He called the end of crypto winter in February, again in March, again in May — the actual bottom was 1 July. But when the market finally broke, on 26 June, he refused to abandon the thesis within 2% of the low. In September he went further — a crypto bull market “underway”, Ethereum to a new high this year — and those calls are still open. Eleven dated calls here: 3 played out, 5 still open, 3 went against him.
Lee meraih gelar BSE dari Wharton School dengan konsentrasi keuangan dan akuntansi, memegang sertifikasi CFA, dan membangun karier sell-side yang konvensional: managing director di Salomon Smith Barney, lalu Chief Equity Strategist di J.P. Morgan dari 2007 hingga 2014. Halaman tim Fundstrat sendiri mencatat bahwa ia menempati peringkat teratas Institutional Investor setiap tahun sejak 1998. Pada 2014 ia ikut mendirikan Fundstrat Global Advisors, sebuah rumah riset independen, tempatnya menjabat Head of Research; ia juga Chief Investment Officer Fundstrat Capital, yang rangkaian ETF «Granny Shots»-nya (GRNY, GRNI, GRNJ) memegang $5,1 miliar aset gabungan per 27 Agustus 2026.
Sisi kriptonya lebih baru dan jauh lebih berisik. Pada 30 Juni 2025 ia diangkat menjadi ketua dewan BitMine Immersion Technologies (NYSE American: BMNR), perusahaan treasury yang membeli dan melakukan staking Ethereum — pada akhir Agustus 2026 perusahaan itu memegang hampir 5,9 juta ETH. Itu bukan catatan kaki pengungkapan; itu konteks bagi sebagian besar hal yang ia katakan tentang Ethereum, dan halaman ini memperlakukannya demikian.
Meleset-melesetnya besar, terbuka, dan sebagian besar soal penentuan waktu. Liputan atas penampilannya di CNBC pada 4 Maret 2026 mencatat bahwa ia memprediksi Bitcoin di $150.000–$200.000 pada akhir Januari dan Ethereum di $7.000–$9.000 pada akhir Januari — ETH memasuki Februari «hanya sedikit di atas $3.000». Di Binance Blockchain Week Desember 2025 ia melangkah lebih jauh di atas panggung: «Saya rasa Bitcoin akan mencapai $250.000 dalam beberapa bulan.» Seruan-seruan itu berada di luar jendela tujuh bulan yang bisa dipetakan halaman ini, jadi dinyatakan di sini alih-alih dihilangkan diam-diam. Ada pula perpecahan di dalam firmanya sendiri: kepala strategi aset digital Fundstrat, Sean Farrell, memiliki skenario dasar Bitcoin mundur ke $60.000–$65.000 pada awal 2026 — persis rentang yang benar-benar terjadi — sementara Lee secara terbuka menyerukan puncak baru.
Sources: fundstrat.com · x.com/fundstrat · CNBC · dated third-party coverage (linked on every call)
Dari atas ke bawah, tematik, target lebih dulu. Lee bertolak dari rezim makro (kebijakan The Fed, likuiditas, ISM, rasio tembaga terhadap emas), aliran dana, dan kurva adopsi, lalu menyatakan pandangannya sebagai angka bulat dengan tahun yang menempel — $250.000 Bitcoin, $12.000 Ethereum, 8.200 untuk S&P. Khusus di kripto, satu-satunya alat analisis sungguhan miliknya adalah rasio harga ETH/BTC: pilih target Bitcoin, pilih rasio, kalikan. Itu kerangka yang transparan dan ia menunjukkan hitungannya — tetapi artinya angka Ethereum-nya mewarisi setiap kesalahan dalam angka Bitcoin-nya. Yang hampir sepenuhnya absen adalah manajemen risiko: tanpa stop, tanpa level invalidasi, tanpa ukuran posisi, dan tanpa kerangka waktu yang lebih ketat dari «tahun ini». Untuk penentuan waktu ia juga meminjam level orang lain (hitungan siklus Tom DeMark, model tren John Bollinger) alih-alih membuat sendiri. Bacalah dia untuk tesis dan aliran dana, jangan pernah untuk titik masuk.
Sebullish yang diizinkan skala, dan itu bersifat struktural — ia mengetuai perusahaan treasury Ethereum dan mengelola ETF ekuitas long-only. Dalam tujuh bulan pernyataan di dalam jendela ini, tak satu pun bernada bearish; yang paling mendekati adalah «harga akan tertinggal dalam jangka pendek», diucapkan tiga hari sebelum dasar.
Eleven dated statements from the chartable window, each one pulled back verbatim from its own source page before it was scored. Lee gives targets but not timeframes tighter than “this year”, so most of these are judged on what price did next from the day he said it. The result splits cleanly by type: his bottom-calling is early and costly — February, March and May all called the end of crypto winter before a further −14.9%, −14.2% and −27.6% — while his thesis-defending at the actual low was excellent. Result: 3 played out, 5 still open, 3 went against him. His bigger misses ($250k Bitcoin “within a few months”, $7–9k Ethereum by January) predate this window and are in the biography, not buried.
“do I think Ethereum could reach all-time highs this year? Uh, absolutely.”
On the Coinage podcast, with ETH at $2,684, he gave a two-step path: $3,000 in the near term, then well above $5,000 — a new all-time high — before year-end, with $60,000 still “a reasonable view” for a couple of years out. Four days in: a high of $2,696 (+0.4%), and it holds $2,649 (−1.3%). His own $5,000 marker needs +88.7% from here in about three months. Open — and he chairs BitMine, which holds close to 6 million ETH.
SourceTom Lee says Ethereum could surge past $5,000 this year to new high — Coinage via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“We believe a crypto bull market is underway, having started in late June,”
In his 21 September note, with BTC at $81,169. His reasons: rotation out of AI stocks back into crypto, tokenization, and the end of the four-year cycle. The start date he gives is fair — Bitcoin's low was 1 July, and he held the thesis there (see 26 June). The rest is untested: BTC ran +6.7% to $86,597 on 22 September and holds $83,346 (+2.7%). One week does not make a bull market — open.
SourceBitcoin braces for $15.6B Friday showdown as Tom Lee says bull run underway — CCN via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“The price ratio of ETH to BTC moved to the highest level since Jan 30th of this year and established a new uptrend,”
His favourite tool again, in BitMine's weekly update, with ETH at $2,477 and the ratio at 0.0322. Ethereum itself did fine: a dip to $2,397 (−3.2%), then +12.1% to $2,775, and it holds $2,649 (+7.0%). The ratio he actually called has not trended: it peaked at 0.0326 on 21 September and is 0.0318 now, a shade below where he said it broke out — Bitcoin kept pace. Open.
SourceBitmine adds $68 million in ether as Tom Lee sees more upside catalysts ahead — CoinDesk↗ coindesk.com“I think it's the first leg up because this was like a catching people offside, moving crypto.”
On CNBC with BTC at $77,658 he called the August rally the first leg up and said his $150,000 target was “still possible, not that far off”, naming the 15 September Fed meeting as the pivot. That meeting has passed and the leg has extended, unevenly: a dip to $75,590 (−2.7%) on 16 September, then +11.5% to $86,597 on 22 September, and BTC holds $83,346 (+7.3%). Direction right so far, but $150,000 is still +80.0% away — open.
SourceTom Lee sees ‘very strong’ September rally if the Fed holds — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“I think that's being very conservative,”
His arithmetic: ETH/BTC back to 0.04 with Bitcoin at $150,000 gives $6,000 Ethereum by year-end — and he called that conservative. He said it with ETH at $2,511. Since then: a dip to $2,391 (−4.8%) on 3 September, then +10.5% to $2,775, and it holds $2,649 (+5.5%). Both inputs are still far off — the ratio is 0.0318, Bitcoin $83,346 — and the target needs +126.5% from here in about three months. Open — and note he chairs BitMine, which owns the ETH.
SourceEthereum will hit $6,000 as CLARITY Act ‘supercharges’ Wall Street demand — CCN via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“Upside breakout happened for $ETH / $BTC,”
Posted on X with ETH at $1,890: the ratio had cleared resistance and a broadening rally was underway. It worked, on both legs. ETH dipped just −2.6% to $1,841, then ran +46.8% to $2,775 by 22 September and holds $2,649 (+40.1%). The ratio he was actually calling went from 0.0291 to 0.0318 over the same stretch. His cleanest call in the window.
SourceTom Lee says Ethereum has broken out against Bitcoin — CCN via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“Crypto I think is not really a broken story, but it is going to have price lagging in the near term because the fundamental story is compounding”
Talking to Anthony Scaramucci with sentiment worse than post-FTX and BTC at $59,727, he refused to drop the thesis. Bitcoin fell just −1.9% further, to $58,566 on 1 July — the low of the whole window — then ran +45.0% to $86,597 and holds $83,346 (+39.5%). Ethereum bottomed that same day. The hedge he added, that price would lag, was the half he got wrong: price led. Called within 2% of the bottom.
SourceTom Lee says crypto is ‘not really broken’ — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“In other words, the fact that we're up three months in a row means crypto winter is over.”
A BitMine shareholder message, argued from a monthly-close statistic: three green months for Ethereum, therefore no winter. He published it on the exact day Bitcoin printed this window's high, with ETH at $2,370. ETH then fell −33.9% to $1,566 by 26 June — the deepest drawdown here. It did not close back above that day's price until 22 August; it has since run +17.1% to $2,775 and holds $2,649 (+11.8%). The direction eventually paid, but the winter he ended was still six weeks from its low.
SourceTom Lee calls the end of crypto winter once again — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“Crypto spring is here.”
Three words, posted on top of John Bollinger's trend-model flip, with BTC at $80,914 — five days from the May high. Bitcoin managed +1.4% to $82,018 on 11 May, then fell −27.6% to $58,566 by 1 July, and did not close back above level yang disebut until 4 September. It has since run +7.0% to $86,597 and holds $83,346 (+3.0%) — a 28% drawdown to be up 3% five months later. His worst-timed in-window call, and a borrowed signal rather than his own.
SourceTom Lee says ‘crypto spring’ is here — CCN via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“They're all probably in the final stages or have already bottomed.”
On CNBC's Squawk Box, with BTC at $68,287: the worst of the sell-off would hit “this week”, and crypto had already bottomed. The short half was fine — BTC's worst close that week was $66,043 (−3.3%) and it ran to $74,679 (+9.4%) by 17 March. The bottom call was not: Bitcoin made a −14.2% lower low at $58,566 on 1 July. High since $86,597 (+26.8%), now $83,346 (+22.1%) — the direction eventually paid, this call didn't.
SourceBitcoin and Ethereum price to surge in March? Tom Lee bullish on rebound — CCN via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“I think it touched it to the penny. He thinks we just have to undercut it once more, and that's the low. meaning we're really close to the end”
At Consensus in Hong Kong, BTC at $68,838. The structure he described — one more undercut of the $60,000 area, and that is the low — is exactly what happened: Bitcoin bottomed once, at $58,566 (−14.9%), and has not been lower since; it ran +25.8% to $86,597 and holds $83,346 (+21.1%). 14 February has now rolled off the chart's price history, which starts on 3 March at $68,816, so the chart anchors there — the percentages come out the same. Two caveats we won't hide. The $60,000 level was Tom DeMark's, not his — Lee was endorsing his timing advisor. And “really close to the end” meant April in the same coverage; the low came on 1 July, four and a half months and one 15% drawdown later.
SourceTom Lee forecasts end of crypto winter, names Bitcoin and Ethereum support — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.comHasil adalah pembacaan kami atas bias yang ia nyatakan terhadap harga riil CoinGecko, bukan penilaiannya sendiri. Di tempat ia menyebut level orang lain ($60.000 milik Tom DeMark), kartunya menyatakannya. Ia mengetuai BitMine, perusahaan treasury Ethereum, sehingga setiap seruan Ethereum di sini membawa kepentingan finansial langsung — timbanglah sesuai itu. Tanda terbuka bisa berbalik.
Lee tidak menjual sinyal — ia menjual riset institusional, mengelola ETF long-only, dan mengetuai treasury Ethereum yang tercatat di bursa. Yang terakhir itulah konflik yang penting, dan hal itu diungkap di profil X miliknya sendiri.
Riset institusional dan ritel (Fundstrat Global Advisors / FundstratDirect) yang dijual ke hedge fund, reksa dana, dan family office. Produknya adalah pandangan itu sendiri, jadi pandangan itu harus menarik.
Ia CIO manajer di balik GRNY, GRNI, dan GRNJ, $5,1 miliar gabungan per 27 Agustus 2026. Dana saham long-only yang mendapat biaya pengelolaan atas aset — insentif untuk bersikap konstruktif terhadap saham.
Ia mengetuai perusahaan treasury Ethereum yang memegang hampir 5,9 juta ETH. Ketika ia menyebut Ethereum «sangat undervalued» di sebuah podcast, ia sedang berbicara tentang neraca yang ia ketuai. Perlakukan setiap seruan ETH di sini sebagai seruan yang berkepentingan.
Penampilan di CNBC, Consensus, Milken, Binance Blockchain Week. Jangkauan adalah kanal distribusi bagi ketiga bisnis di atas.
“Crypto I think is not really a broken story, but it is going to have price lagging in the near term because the fundamental story is compounding”
26 Jun 2026 · diucapkan tiga hari sebelum titik terendah Bitcoin“Upside breakout happened for $ETH / $BTC,”
15 Jul 2026 · rasio ETH/BTC adalah satu-satunya alat kripto sungguhan miliknya“Crypto spring is here.”
6 May 2026 · diunggah lima hari sebelum puncak“In other words, the fact that we're up three months in a row means crypto winter is over.”
11 May 2026 · penutupan bulanan sebagai sinyal dasar — enam pekan terlalu diniKutipan diambil dari sumber publik miliknya sendiri; ini pandangan yang dinyatakan, bukan rekomendasi.
Tidak ada pustaka video yang ditautkan di sini. Keluaran Lee adalah acara milik orang lain — tampil di CNBC, jadi tamu podcast, pidato utama konferensi — ditambah riset berbayar Fundstrat dan surat pemegang saham BitMine. Kanal YouTube miliknya sendiri tidak menerbitkan apa pun sejak 2024, dan segmen CNBC tidak menyertakan transkrip yang bisa kami kutip. Alih-alih menjejali bagian ini dengan klip yang tidak bisa kami kutip persis, kami membiarkannya kosong: setiap seruan yang dipetakan di atas menaut ke halaman bertanggal yang memuat kata-katanya kata demi kata, dan semuanya direproduksi dalam korpus terverifikasi di balik dosir ini.
Thomas J. Lee, CFA, adalah ahli strategi Wall Street: Chief Equity Strategist di J.P. Morgan dari 2007 hingga 2014, lalu salah satu pendiri dan Head of Research Fundstrat Global Advisors, serta Chief Investment Officer Fundstrat Capital. Sejak 30 Juni 2025 ia juga mengetuai BitMine Immersion Technologies, perusahaan treasury Ethereum yang tercatat di bursa. Ia salah satu komentator pasar yang paling sering diundang CNBC.
Sepanjang 2026 ia secara terbuka memegang target Bitcoin $250.000, dengan $150.000 sebagai penanda yang lebih dekat — pada 31 Agustus 2026 ia berkata «Saya rasa 150 masih mungkin, tidak sejauh itu» saat Bitcoin di $77.658. Ia tidak menerbitkan level invalidasi, dan target sebelumnya ($150.000–$200.000 pada akhir Januari) meleset.
He is a research analyst and commentator, not your adviser, and he has a direct financial interest in Ethereum through BitMine. His documented pattern in the window charted here is that his direction has been broadly right and his timing repeatedly early — he called the end of crypto winter in February, March and May before the actual low on 1 July. Three of the eleven dated calls on this page went against him. Never trade a headline target without your own invalidation level.
Top-down dan tematik: membaca rezim makro (The Fed, likuiditas, ISM), mengenali tren adopsi bertahun-tahun, lalu menyatakannya sebagai target bulat dengan tahun yang menempel. Khusus untuk kripto ia bekerja dari rasio harga ETH/BTC — pilih target Bitcoin, pilih rasio, kalikan — yang transparan tetapi berarti angka Ethereum-nya mewarisi setiap kesalahan dalam angka Bitcoin-nya.
Ia mengetuai BitMine Immersion Technologies (NYSE American: BMNR), yang pada akhir Agustus 2026 memegang hampir 5,9 juta ETH dan menyatakan telah menempuh sekitar 98% jalan menuju targetnya memiliki 5% pasokan. Profil X miliknya membawa label bisnis untuk perusahaan itu. Setiap seruannya tentang Ethereum sebaiknya dibaca sebagai seruan yang berkepentingan.
Lee memilih sebuah tema, memilih sebuah angka, dan memegangnya sepanjang penurunan. Seberapa dekat naluri Anda — ukur sungguhan dengan Trader Passport.
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Analisis informatif dan edukatif yang sepenuhnya berdasarkan materi publik (liputan pihak ketiga bertanggal dan unggahan publiknya sendiri, ditautkan pada setiap seruan). Tom Lee mengetuai BitMine Immersion Technologies, sebuah perusahaan treasury Ethereum, dan menjabat CIO sebuah manajer ETF — keduanya diungkap di atas dan relevan dengan pandangan yang ia nyatakan. Bukan nasihat keuangan atau investasi. Angka bersifat perkiraan dan terus berubah. Spotted an error, or are you Tom? Kirim koreksi →
Akun terverifikasi · Sumber dicantumkan di atas · Metodologi penilaian · Diperbarui 28 September 2026
