@MerlijnTrader
Akun chart asal Belanda yang memposting satu ide sekaligus, dengan huruf kapital dan satu grafik beranotasi: tahun ini berima dengan 2018 / 2022 / 2017, dan inilah level yang menentukannya. Output tinggi, sangat mudah dibaca, dan — tidak biasa untuk genre ini — hampir selalu disertai angka yang bisa diperiksa nanti. Jadi kami periksa.
Singkatnya. Merlijn The Trader is one of the loudest pattern accounts on X (~380K followers) and a much smaller YouTube channel (16.2K). The method is consistent: take a historical analogue — the 2022 bottom, the 2018 death cross, August 2017 — overlay it on the present chart, and name the one level that confirms or kills it. That makes him easy to grade, and the grade is genuinely mixed. His July 2026 bottom calls on Bitcoin and Ether landed within days of the actual turn. His June 2026 “spring to $50K” road-map missed on both legs while price ran 42% the other way, and his April death-cross analogue pointed at a crash that never came. His September “Rektember” warning was followed by the month's rally; since mid-September he has been loudly bullish again (“don't wait for $50K”, “road to $170K”), and those calls are still open. He is also a paid-promotion business — his own link page sells “Premium RWA Marketing Packages” — which belongs in the frame next to the charts.
Merlijn memposting sebagai @MerlijnTrader kepada sekitar 380.000 pengikut, dengan kanal YouTube yang jauh lebih kecil (16.2K subscriber, aktif sejak Juni 2021, ~1,1 juta tayangan sepanjang masa) yang menceritakan ulang tesis harian yang sama dalam bentuk video. Akun X-nya membawa lencana afiliasi untuk @cryptorover — label bisnis Crypto Rover — jadi kedua akun berada di dalam operasi media yang sama, bukan dua suara independen yang kebetulan sepakat. Kanal YouTube-nya menyebut proyeknya sendiri dengan terang: “The mission: turn $250K into $1M with Bitcoin”, didokumentasikan secara langsung.
He is a commentator and marketer, not a fund. His public link page describes him as a consultant and business coach, invites DMs “for Business/Partnerships”, and sells “TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages” — i.e. projects can buy promotion from the same account that publishes the analysis. For honesty, note the big out-of-window calls too: in August 2025 he pushed back on $124K being the top (“0/30 peak indicators have triggered”), and in November 2025 he called the fear “manufactured” and the cycle only at “50% progress”, “not exit liquidity season”. In the seven months this page charts, Bitcoin never traded above $86,597 and printed $58,566 on 1 July 2026 — nowhere near $124K. Those posts are outside the price window so they are not charted, but they belong on the record.
Sources: x.com/MerlijnTrader (posts captured via x_capture.py) · youtube.com/@Merlijntrader (upload titles verified via oEmbed, dates from the video page) · linktr.ee/merlijnthetrader
Analisis teknikal berbasis fraktal. Mesinnya adalah analogi: temukan tahun lampau yang grafiknya mirip tahun ini (2017, 2018, 2022), asumsikan strukturnya berulang, lalu sebutkan level yang membuktikannya. Di sekelilingnya ia memakai fase akumulasi Wyckoff (spring, mark-up), persilangan rata-rata bergerak, Stochastic RSI, dasbor berisi ~30 indikator puncak siklus, serta berita on-chain atau makro (antrean keluar validator, ekspektasi suku bunga Fed, pengajuan ETF) sebagai konfirmasi. Kekuatannya adalah dapat difalsifikasi — ia berkomitmen pada angka seperti “$60K is the decision” atau “DCA zone $48–59K”. Kelemahannya adalah sisi lain dari janji yang sama: ketika analogi tidak terulang, kesimpulannya bukan sekadar terlalu dini, tetapi terbalik, dan postingannya hampir tak pernah mencantumkan ukuran posisi atau harga invalidasi bagi pembaca.
Secara struktural bullish — kesimpulan yang berulang adalah bahwa dasar sudah terjadi dan kerumunan menjualnya. Postingan bearish dalam sampel ini bersifat jangka pendek dan bersyarat; yang bullish adalah tesisnya.
Twelve dated calls of his own, charted against real CoinGecko price. Ten are X posts fetched back with their text and timestamp intact; two are the titles of his own YouTube uploads, dated from the video page. The sample is deliberately not a highlight reel: it includes the two July bottom calls that landed (BTC and ETH, within days of the turn), the June road-map that missed on both legs, the April death-cross analogue that pointed at a −67% repeat which never arrived, and the May “Solana is the loser” post that Solana then outperformed on. Note what this is: twelve calls from an account that publishes many times a day, picked because they contained a checkable number — not a complete log of everything he said. His 2025 “$124K is not the top / 50% through the cycle” posts fall outside the price window; they are in the biography above, unscored.
“$BTC BULLS THIS ISN'T WHAT YOU WANTED TO SEE. Bitcoin breakdown confirmed. All eyes on $80,500 now. Hold it, and this is just a shakeout. Lose it, and I expect more pain.”
A two-branch call with the level spelled out. Bitcoin was $84,449 that day, so $80,500 sat 4.7% below it. A day later it is $83,145 (−1.5%), still $2,645 above his line, so neither branch has triggered. The next morning he posted the same idea in more detail as a Wyckoff plan: a backup to $81K–$82K, then $90K if that holds. Open.
𝕏 Post“All eyes on $80,500 now.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“And So It Begins… Bitcoin’s Road To $170K”
Published the day Bitcoin closed at $86,597, the highest price in this page's window. The title names a $170,000 destination, +96.3% away, with no date attached. We have the title, not a transcript, so we grade the title. A week on, Bitcoin is $83,145, −4.0% below him, and no day has closed higher since. A multi-year target: open.
Source“And So It Begins… Bitcoin’s Road To $170K” — Merlijn The Trader (his own upload, 22 Sep 2026)↗ youtube.com“PLEASE Don’t Wait For $50K Bitcoin… The Bottom Is Already In”
A bottom call made one day after Bitcoin's lowest September close, $75,590 on the 16th. He published at $76,147 and told viewers not to wait for $50,000. Twelve days later no day in our series has closed below his day's price. The high since is $86,597 (+13.7%) and Bitcoin trades at $83,145 (+9.2%). A fortnight is too short to grade a “bottom is in” call, so it stays open, but so far price agrees with him.
Source“PLEASE Don’t Wait For $50K Bitcoin… The Bottom Is Already In” — Merlijn The Trader (his own upload, 17 Sep 2026)↗ youtube.com“REKTEMBER IS HERE: … Bitcoin lost $78,000 to open September. Warsh is publicly signaling a September hike. Trump is not stepping in to stop him. … Rektember arrived without the safety net.”
A rate-scare warning with no level attached, so we graded it on the month it named. From $77,416 Bitcoin dipped to $75,590 (−2.4%) on 16 September. It then ran to $86,597 (+11.9%) on the 22nd and trades at $83,145 (+7.4%) with September all but over. The month did not bleed; it was the month the rally resumed. Went against.
𝕏 Post“Rektember arrived without the safety net.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN'S WORST MONTH JUST PRINTED ITS BEST NUMBER SINCE 2017. August: red in 9 of the last 13 years. Median return -6.99%. 2026: +24.39%. When the month that always bleeds prints green, the crowd is positioned wrong. That's exactly what 2017 looked like before Q4 tripled.”
The premise checks out — our daily series has Bitcoin going $62,820 → $77,658 across August, +23.6%, against his quoted +24.39%. The conclusion is a Q4 call, and Q4 starts on Thursday. Since the post, Bitcoin has dipped to $75,590 (−2.7%), run to $86,597 (+11.5%), and sits at $83,145 (+7.1%). That was a good September for his thesis, but the claim is that Q4 triples like 2017. Open.
𝕏 Post“When the month that always bleeds prints green, the crowd is positioned wrong.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“$67K was support. Now it's a ceiling. Price is pinned right below it at $65,300. As long as that level caps us, the range holds and a dip toward $54K liquidity is on the table.”
Two branches, and the tape took the one he named as the invalidation. The ceiling did hold for three more weeks — from $65,344 Bitcoin sagged to $62,773 (−3.9%) by 2 August and closed under $67K every single day until 20 August. Then it reclaimed the level and ran: high since $86,597 (+32.5%), now $83,145 (+27.2%). The $54K liquidity he pointed at never got close — the lowest print is $8,773 above it. Range read right, downside target never armed: open, not scored.
𝕏 Post“$67K was support. Now it's a ceiling.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“2,600,000 ETHEREUM QUEUED TO EXIT IN SEPTEMBER. TODAY THE QUEUE IS EMPTY. … That queue cleared straight into a 47% drawdown. Whoever wanted out is already out. That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.”
Well timed. Ether was $1,953; the worst it did afterwards was $1,843 (−5.6%), then it ran to $2,775 (+42.1%) and trades at $2,666 (+36.5%). The reasoning was an emptied validator exit queue rather than a chart, and the call landed within days of the low.
𝕏 Post“That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN TAPPED ITS PREVIOUS CYCLE HIGH TWICE. THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED IN 2022. … 2026: price fell to the 2021 top, tapped it twice, and it's up 13% this month. Same structure.”
The 2022 analogue worked here. From $66,077 Bitcoin dipped only to $62,773 (−5.0%), then ran to $86,597 (+31.1%) and sits at $83,145 (+25.8%). His “up 13% this month” also checks: the July low was $58,566 on the 1st, so +12.8% into the day he posted.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin tapped its previous cycle high twice.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“The Bitcoin bounce is coming. Don't go all-in on it. … 2026: Same playbook. Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming. DCA zone: $48-59K.”
The most specific call in the set, and the clearest miss. Bitcoin was $60,855. The Wyckoff spring to ~$50K never happened — the lowest print since is $58,566 (−3.8%) on 1 July, which only clips the very top edge of his $48–59K accumulation band. And the bounce did not stall in his $65–70K box: the high since is $86,597 (+42.3%) and price is $83,145 (+36.6%). “Don't go all-in on it” was the wrong instruction — that bounce was the move.
𝕏 Post“Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BAD NEWS FOR SOLANA AND XRP HOLDERS: Goldman Sachs just separated winners from losers. Publicly. Sold: all Solana ETF holdings. … Kept: Bitcoin exposure. Kept: Ethereum infrastructure plays.”
The filing was real; the winners-and-losers reading was not. Solana was $85, fell to $62 (−27.0%) — but so did everything, with Bitcoin −24.4% and Ether −26.5% over the same stretch — and it has since recovered to $118 (+38.3%) after a high of $122 (+43.3%). Over the period he framed it in, the coin he called the loser beat the Bitcoin he said the bank kept (+7.4%) by about 31 points.
𝕏 Post“BAD NEWS FOR SOLANA AND XRP HOLDERS” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN GOLDEN CROSS. THEN DEATH CROSS. TWICE. 2018: golden cross printed. Death cross followed. -67%. 2022: golden cross printed. Death cross followed. -69%. 2026: golden cross printed. Death cross forming. $60K is the decision. Hold it: this time is different.”
He put two analogues on the table (−67% in 2018, −69% in 2022) and made $60K the line that chose between them. The line broke: from $68,107 Bitcoin fell to $58,566 (−14.0%), about 2.4% under level yang disebut. Then nothing resembling the analogue followed — the high since is $86,597 (+27.1%) and price is $83,145 (+22.1%). The level was a fair pivot; the crash he attached to losing it never existed.
𝕏 Post“$60K is the decision.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“ETHEREUM HAS PRINTED THIS PATTERN TWICE IN FOUR MONTHS. 3 step rally. Stoch RSI peaks. Rollover. Dump. November: textbook. ETH lost 40%. March: same structure. Same Stoch RSI signal. $2K is the last support before the pattern completes.”
Graded on the branch he drew, this one worked. Ether was $2,203; $2,000 gave way nine days later, on 28 March, and the pattern completed into $1,566 (−28.9%) on 26 June — not far off the −40% November analogue he cited. It has since recovered to $2,666 (+21.0%), but the rollover he warned about was real, and it was called before the break.
𝕏 Post“$2K is the last support before the pattern completes.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated thesis against real price, not his own scoring. Several posts are two-branch conditionals (“hold it / lose it”) and X truncates long posts, so we quote and grade only the text the syndication endpoint returns verbatim. The two YouTube calls are graded on the title alone. Open marks can flip as the cycle resolves.
Ini bagian berkas yang paling penting untuk akun chart dengan volume posting tinggi: bisnis publik Merlijn adalah perhatian dan promosi, dijual dari akun yang sama yang menerbitkan analisis. Tak ada yang disembunyikan — semuanya ada di halaman tautannya sendiri — tetapi harus berdiri di samping grafiknya.
Halaman tautan publiknya menjual “TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages” dan mengundang DM “for Business/Partnerships”. Jadi proyek bisa membeli jangkauan dari akun yang sama yang memposting analisis pasar. Anggap setiap token atau platform yang disebut dalam sebuah postingan bisa merupakan hubungan komersial kecuali ia menyatakan sebaliknya.
Halaman yang sama memasarkannya sebagai konsultan dan business coach dengan penawaran “Book a Strategy Call” — audiens diubah menjadi pendapatan jasa, yang memberi imbalan pada volume posting dan keyakinan, bukan kehati-hatian.
Akun X-nya membawa lencana afiliasi untuk @cryptorover. Dua akun dari satu operasi yang saling menyetujui bukan dua konfirmasi independen — hitung sekali, bukan dua kali.
Kanal YouTube-nya menyatakan proyeknya sebagai “turn $250K into $1M with Bitcoin”, didokumentasikan langsung. Itu keterbukaan, bukan konflik — tetapi artinya ada portofolio Bitcoin yang secara struktural bullish di belakang postingan Bitcoin yang secara struktural bullish.
“Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming. DCA zone: $48-59K.”
07 Jun 2026 · peta yang salah di kedua kakinya“That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.”
27 Jul 2026 · empat hari sebelum titik terendah ETH yang sebenarnya“$60K is the decision. Hold it: this time is different.”
01 Apr 2026 · garis death cross yang jebol tanpa kejatuhanKutipan diambil dari sumber publik miliknya sendiri; ini pandangan yang dinyatakan, bukan rekomendasi.
Ia menerbitkan video Bitcoin hampir setiap hari di kanal yang jauh lebih kecil daripada yang disiratkan jumlah pengikutnya di X. Unggahan terbaru, bertanggal dari feed kanal:
Bitcoin’s Next Drop Is Coming… But Bears Are Making A Huge MistakeTurun jangka pendek, bullish jangka panjang — tepat sikap yang digambar dosir ini.10 Sep 2026
Bitcoin Is Repeating The 2022 Bottom… Here’s What Comes NextFraktal 2022 yang menggerakkan sebagian besar seruannya di 2026.08 Sep 2026
Bitcoin’s New Parabolic Cycle Has OFFICIALLY BegunTesis siklus bullish, dinyatakan tanpa level.07 Sep 2026
Bitcoin Just Flashed A MAJOR Buy Signal Before Jackson HoleKerangka peristiwa makro sebelum reli Agustus.28 Aug 2026Seorang analis grafik kripto asal Belanda yang memposting sebagai @MerlijnTrader kepada sekitar 380.000 pengikut di X, dengan kanal YouTube yang lebih kecil (16.2K subscriber). Nama belakangnya tidak publik. Ia dikenal karena postingan huruf kapital dengan satu grafik yang membandingkan pasar saat ini dengan tahun lampau — 2017, 2018, 2022 — dan menyebut satu level yang menentukan hasilnya.
Mixed, and that is measurable. Of twelve dated 2026 calls charted here, three played out (including well-timed July bottom calls on Bitcoin and Ether), five are still open, and four went against him — most clearly a June road-map for a drop to $50,000 that instead saw Bitcoin rally 42%. He is a commentator, not a licensed adviser.
Ia menjual promosi secara terbuka: halaman tautan publiknya mencantumkan “TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages”, mengundang DM untuk bisnis dan kemitraan, serta menawarkan panggilan strategi berbayar. Akun X-nya juga membawa lencana afiliasi untuk @cryptorover. Anggap sebuah proyek yang disebut bisa merupakan hubungan komersial kecuali dinyatakan sebaliknya.
Analogi fraktal ditambah satu level keputusan. Ia menumpangkan struktur grafik tahun lampau pada masa kini — akumulasi Wyckoff, golden/death cross, Stochastic RSI, dasbor ~30 sinyal puncak siklus — lalu berkomitmen pada angka seperti “$60K is the decision” atau “DCA zone $48–59K”. Itu membuatnya mudah diperiksa; itu juga berarti ketika analoginya gagal, kesimpulannya terbalik, bukan sekadar terlalu dini.
Merlijn berdagang dengan analogi: temukan tahun yang sedang disalin grafik ini, lalu pertahankan satu level. Seberapa dekat instingmu — ukur sungguhan dengan Trader Passport.
Bagaimanapun, satu-satunya uji yang jujur adalah uji langsung. Jalankan pembacaanmu pada data pasar nyata — tanpa risiko modal — di turnamen BuyCrypt gratis dengan hadiah nyata.
Analisis informatif dan edukatif yang dibangun secara ketat dari materi publik: postingan X bertanggal miliknya sendiri, direkam persis beserta cap waktunya dan ditautkan pada setiap seruan, ditambah kanal dan halaman tautan publiknya. Bukan nasihat keuangan atau investasi. Angka bersifat perkiraan dan terus berubah. Spotted an error, or are you Merlijn? Kirim koreksi →
Akun terverifikasi · Sumber dicantumkan di atas · Metodologi penilaian · Diperbarui 29 September 2026
