@MarkYusko
Manajer dana abadi yang berbicara soal nilai wajar, bukan target harga. Yusko menjalankan bitcoin melalui model nilai jaringan, membeli ketika modelnya bilang murah, dan menempelkan tanggal pada siklus — yang membuatnya luar biasa mudah diperiksa, dan membuat kesalahannya pun mudah diperiksa.
Singkatnya. Mark Yusko is the founder, CEO and chief investment officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management, and before that ran the endowments at Notre Dame and UNC Chapel Hill. In crypto he is a macro and valuation voice rather than a chartist: he anchors on a Metcalfe's-law network-value model (run by analyst Tim Peterson) that puts Bitcoin's fair value near $105,000, and he accumulates whenever price sits below it. He is also a four-year-cycle believer to the day, naming 5 October 2026 as the cycle's turn — a date that came and went with no new low. That framework called the depth of this year's low almost exactly — and got the timing of it badly wrong, twice.
Yusko (lahir 1963, besar di Seattle) memegang gelar BS dari Notre Dame dan MBA dari University of Chicago. Ia bergabung dengan kantor investasi Notre Dame sebagai assistant investment officer pada Oktober 1993 dan menjadi senior investment director di sana sampai 1998, lalu mendirikan dan memimpin UNC Management Company, kantor investasi dana abadi University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, dari 1998 hingga 2004. Ke keduanya ia membawa „model dana abadi“ yang sarat aset alternatif. Pada 2004 ia mendirikan Morgan Creek Capital Management, dan pada 2018 Morgan Creek Digital, yang bermitra dengan Bitwise meluncurkan Digital Asset Index Fund institusional. Sebuah wawancara 2026 menyebut lengan digital itu mengelola $3.2 billion of assets under advisement.
Rekam jejaknya tidak seragam bagus, dan dosir ini mengatakannya: Endowment Fund, kemitraannya dengan Salient Partners, tumbuh sampai sekitar $3.5 billion sebelum masalah kinerja membuatnya dicopot pada Januari 2013. Di kripto keyakinannya sudah lama — nama X-nya, „Two Point One Quadrillion“, adalah jumlah satoshi yang ada — begitu pula angka jangka panjangnya: dalam wawancara 15 Februari 2026 ia mengaku „pretty comfortable“ bahwa bitcoin mencapai $600,000–$700,000 by September 2029. Wawancara yang sama memuat panggilan yang tak bisa diplot dosir ini tapi tak akan disembunyikan: ia menaruh dasar siklus ini di $58,000–$63,000, tiba sekitar 30 September–1 Oktober 2026. Levelnya nyaris sempurna — titik terendah bitcoin sejauh ini $58,566 — tapi tercetak pada 1 Juli, tiga bulan lebih awal, dan di bulan-bulan antara itu ia terus mengatakan bahwa dasar sudah terbentuk.
Sources: morgancreekcap.com · Bitcoin Magazine · Yahoo Finance / Benzinga / Stocktwits · Coinage · NewsBTC · Cointelegraph
Makro yang mengutamakan valuasi, dengan jam dana abadi. Yusko tidak menggambar garis tren. Ia bertanya berapa nilai sebuah jaringan — hukum Metcalfe yang diterapkan pada pengguna dan transaksi bitcoin, lewat model Tim Peterson — lalu membeli mingguan ketika harga di bawah angka itu, tanpa berusaha menebak harinya. Di sekelilingnya ada pembacaan top-down soal likuiditas, pelemahan fiat, posisi di pasar berjangka, dan siklus halving empat tahun yang ia perlakukan sebagai kalender dengan presisi 364 hari dari puncak sebelumnya. Kekuatannya: ia terus membeli menembus penurunan yang membuat orang lain takut. Kelemahannya sifat yang sama: model yang bilang „murah“ di $70,000 juga bilang „murah“ di $60,000, dan tebakan waktu siklusnya berulang kali terlalu dini.
Structurally very bullish on Bitcoin (fair value $105,000 against a price in the $80,000s, a $600–700k 2029 target). He spent early September calling the tape “bear market action” and pointing at a 5 October low, then turned: on 22 September he said the uptrend to $125,000 and $250,000 had begun, and on 2 October he posted “Looking Like Uptober”. Bearish on governance tokens, including ETH and SOL.
Dated statements Yusko made on podcasts and video interviews, written up verbatim by third-party press, charted against real price. He is a valuation and cycle voice, so the calls are directional and dated rather than tight levels — we judged each on what Bitcoin (or Solana) actually did next. The 2026 sample below is unflattering in the middle: he called the lows in on 11 March and again on 18 May, and Bitcoin then fell to $58,566 on 1 July. What he did right is arguably more useful — he was buying weekly the whole way down, and his 11 July and 16 September accumulation calls both worked. His 6 September warning — a possible drop toward $60,000 before a 5 October low — did not. His out-of-window 15 February call had the bottom level almost exactly right and the date three months late; it is on the record above, not on this chart, because it predates the price window.
“Looking Like Uptober… 🧡🚀”
Three days before his own 5 October cycle-low date, he quote-posted Morgan Creek's Digital Currents episode — “‘Uptober’ or head fake?” — and answered it: Uptober. A day earlier he had hedged the same idea (“when everyone starts taking about something, it usually doesn’t happen”). Posted at 20:34 UTC, so the chart's 2 October point of $84,842 is that day's midnight price; the next point, $84,506, was barely different. Since then BTC has topped at $86,490 (+1.9%) on 5 October and sits at $84,009 (−1.0%). Five days in — open.
𝕏 Post“Looking Like Uptober…” — @MarkYusko on X↗ x.com“So, I think this will be not like straight up to 125 and straight up to 250, but I do think the durability of the trend will be better.”
Talking to Coinage's Zack Guzman (uploaded 22 September), he said Bitcoin had moved from distribution into accumulation and that the path to $125,000 and then $250,000 had begun — slowly, not vertically. It is a flip from his 6 September “not out of the woods” call, made before his own 5 October date. He made it on the best close of the whole rebound: $86,597, which BTC has not bettered since. Low since $83,479 (−3.6%), now $84,009 (−3.0%). A long-horizon thesis two weeks old — open.
SourceWhy the Bitcoin Rally to $250K Has Begun: Hedge Fund Manager Mark Yusko — Coinage via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“Okay, so it’s on sale — you should accumulate things that are on sale.”
On Bitcoin Magazine TV, with BTC at $75,590, he put fair value at $105,000 on Metcalfe's law and said the gap made it a buy. It worked: BTC has not closed lower since, ran to $86,597 (+14.6%) on 22 September and sits at $84,009 (+11.1%). He called it on the exact low of the September dip.
SourceBitcoin Is On Sale, Says Morgan Creek CEO Mark Yusko — Bitcoin Magazine↗ bitcoinmagazine.com“We sold 90% of it.”
He revealed he had exited almost all of a Solana position he called the best investment of his life — roughly a 1,000x on Morgan Creek's stake in Multicoin's first fund — on governance grounds, not price. A month later the exit is offside: from $103 SOL dipped to $97 (−6.1%), then ran to $122 (+18.3%) and sits at $118 (+14.5%). Still far too early to score a multi-year exit made on governance grounds — open.
SourceMark Yusko Dumps 90% Of Solana, Warns Of More Pain For BTC — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet.”
With BTC at $79,822 he called the tape “super, super overbought”, said the squeeze was “still bear market action”, put the cycle low on 5 October (364 days after the peak) and warned price could fall to about $60,000 first. His date has now passed and the drop never came. The worst close was $75,590 (−5.3%) on 16 September; BTC then ran to $86,597 (+8.5%), closed $86,490 on 5 October itself and sits at $84,009 (+5.2%). By 2 October he was posting “Looking Like Uptober” himself — went against.
SourceMark Yusko Dumps 90% Of Solana, Warns Of More Pain For BTC — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“So we’ve been buying a little bit every week since February, and we’ll continue to do that... probably through October or so.”
Panggilan terbaiknya tahun ini, dan ia membuatnya tanpa menyebut level. Berbicara kepada Cointelegraph sepuluh hari setelah titik terendah bitcoin di $58,566, dengan BTC di $64,111, ia bilang Morgan Creek telah membeli mingguan sejak Februari melawan nilai wajar $105,000–$108,000 dan akan lanjut sampai Oktober. BTC kemudian naik ke $86,597 (+35.1%) dan berada di $84,009 (+31.0%), dengan penurunan maksimum hanya −2.9% sepanjang jalan.
SourceSpaceX Is ‘The Equivalent Of Dogecoin’ And Bitcoin Is The One That’s Actually Cheap — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“The little flows are real. The big flows usually are not.”
Reporting on his 14 May interview with Scott Melker, the piece says he believed Bitcoin had already bottomed near the low-$60,000 range and dismissed a $630M ETF outflow day as hedge-fund basis trades rather than real selling. The flows read was defensible; the bottom call was not. From $77,429 BTC fell −24.4% to $58,566 on 1 July — through the floor he had just called — and only got back above his call price in September, peaking at $86,597 (+11.8%); now $84,009 (+8.5%).
SourceMark Yusko Says Look Past Bitcoin ETF Outflows: ‘Bear Markets Are Over’ — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“If CLARITY does pass, we probably extend the bear market longer.”
He called the CLARITY Act “a horrible bill” written by big banks and tied the cycle to it: passage extends the bear market, failure pulls the break into “crypto spring” forward from September–October. The bill failed its Senate cloture vote 49–50 on 15 September, so his stated trigger never fired — and price did neither thing cleanly. From $78,275 BTC ran to $82,018 (+4.8%) on 11 May, collapsed −25.2% to $58,566, and after the vote recovered to $86,597 (+10.6%); now $84,009 (+7.3%). Unresolved rather than right — open.
Source‘Horrible Bill’: Yusko Says CLARITY Act Could Extend Crypto Bear Market — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“I think the worst of the selling has occurred… We probably have seen the lows.”
Said on 11 March — a day that has since rolled out of this chart's price window, so the chart now anchors at $70,029 on 12 March. He told Coinage the selling was done and expected a range between the low $60,000s and low $80,000s through the summer. The range was roughly right; the floor was not. From the anchor Bitcoin lost −16.4% to $58,566 on 1 July — below the bottom of his band — before recovering to $84,009 (+20.0%). Anyone who read “the lows are in” as permission to stop being careful wore the whole drawdown.
SourceThe Worst of Bitcoin’s Selloff May Be Over, Says Mark Yusko — Coinage↗ coinage.mediaOutcomes are our read of his stated view against real price, not his own scoring. Every call links the page we fetched, and every quote was re-checked against that page on 20 September 2026; the 22 September and 2 October calls were checked on 7 October 2026. Those two are days old — near-term marks can flip.
Yusko tidak menjual sinyal atau kursus. Ia menjalankan sebuah firma, dan insentif yang perlu diketahui itu sederhana: seorang alokator yang membicarakan posisinya sendiri di televisi, dengan sebuah dana dan target jangka panjang di belakangnya.
Firmanya, didirikan 2004 — mandat diskresioner dan advisori yang dijalankan dengan model dana abadi. Optimisme publik soal bitcoin tak terpisahkan dari bisnis yang mengalokasikan dana ke sana.
Lengan aset digital tahun 2018 yang bermitra dengan Bitwise dalam dana indeks institusional; sebuah wawancara 2026 menaruhnya di $3.2 billion of assets under advisement.
Ia bilang kira-kira separuh kekayaan bersihnya ada di bitcoin dan aset terkait bitcoin, melawan „five, eight, or ten percent“ yang ia sarankan kepada orang lain — pengungkapan yang luar biasa terus terang, dan alasan untuk mendiskon intensitas argumen bullish-nya.
Ia menyebut token tata kelola tanpa klaim atas biaya jaringan — menyebut Ethereum dan Uniswap di samping Solana — „kind of scammy“. Bacalah kerangka bitcoin-versus-altcoin miliknya sambil tahu di mana eksposurnya berada.
“Okay, so it’s on sale — you should accumulate things that are on sale.”
16 Sep 2026 · aturan valuasi dalam satu baris“So we’ve been buying a little bit every week since February, and we’ll continue to do that... probably through October or so.”
11 Jul 2026 · bagaimana ia benar-benar menjalankannya“I think the worst of the selling has occurred… We probably have seen the lows.”
11 Mar 2026 · panggilan yang memakan biaya, empat bulan terlalu dini“I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet.”
6 Sep 2026 · masih hati-hati menuju tanggal 5 Oktober miliknyaKutipan diambil dari sumber publik miliknya sendiri; ini pandangan yang dinyatakan, bukan rekomendasi.
Yusko tidak mengelola apa pun miliknya sendiri — tanpa kanal, tanpa newsletter, tanpa grup berbayar. Ia tampil di acara orang lain, dan di situlah setiap panggilan di atas dibuat. Inilah video primer di balik dosir ini, diverifikasi judul dan tanggal unggahnya:
Why Bitcoin’s Bull Path to $250K Already Started: Mark YuskoCoinage — the “durability of the trend” interview behind the 22 September call.22 Sep 2026
Mark Yusko: Bitcoin's Rise is Programmed - The Path from Speculation to Global MoneyBitcoin Magazine TV — wawancara „it's on sale“ yang diplot di atas.16 Sep 2026
Why Mark Yusko Is Buying Bitcoin Before OctoberCointelegraph — wawancara akumulasi mingguan di balik panggilan 11 Juli.10 Jul 2026
Donald Trump Is About To Crash Bitcoin Again | Mark Yusko's 2026 PredictionsAltcoin Daily — dasar $58,000–$63,000 dan target $600–700k untuk 2029, tepat di luar jendela grafik.8 Feb 2026
Bitcoin ETF Manipulation, AI Bubble & 2026 Predictions | Mark YuskoThe Bureau Podcast — kerangka penekanan lewat pasar berjangka dan gelembung AI yang ia ulang sepanjang tahun.7 Jan 2026Mark W. Yusko (lahir 1963) adalah pendiri, CEO, dan chief investment officer Morgan Creek Capital Management, yang ia mulai pada 2004. Sebelumnya ia mengelola dana abadi University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill sebagai pemimpin UNC Management Company (1998–2004) dan menjadi senior investment director di kantor investasi Notre Dame (1993–1998). Ia mendirikan Morgan Creek Digital pada 2018 dan termasuk bull bitcoin institusional yang paling lama bertahan.
Two numbers, both dated and sourced on this page. Near term he anchors on a Metcalfe's-law network-value model run by analyst Tim Peterson that put Bitcoin's fair value around $105,000 as of 16 September 2026 — against a market price near $75,000. On 22 September he told Coinage the slow path to $125,000 and then $250,000 had begun. Long term, in a 15 February 2026 interview, he said Bitcoin reaches $600,000–$700,000 by September 2029.
Mixed, and the chart above shows both sides. He called the bottom in on 11 March and again on 18 May 2026, and Bitcoin then fell to $58,566 on 1 July — his two red marks. But he was buying weekly through the whole decline, and his 11 July and 16 September accumulation calls are up by roughly a third and by more than a tenth. His 6 September call for a drop toward $60,000 before a 5 October low also missed — the date passed with Bitcoin in the $80,000s. His February call had the bottom level ($58,000–$63,000) nearly exact while missing the date by three months.
Valuasi dulu, dan pelan. Ia memperkirakan nilai jaringan bitcoin memakai hukum Metcalfe, membeli mingguan kapan pun harga diperdagangkan di bawah nilai wajar itu alih-alih menebak titik terendah, dan melapisinya dengan siklus halving empat tahun yang ia tanggali presisi — 364 hari dari puncak sebelumnya, yang menaruh titik balik siklus ini pada 5 Oktober 2026. Ia sepenuhnya menghindari leverage dan level jangka pendek, serta meremehkan token tata kelola yang tak punya klaim atas biaya jaringan.
Yusko membeli sebuah angka, bukan grafik: nilai wajar dulu, pembelian mingguan, tanpa upaya menangkap titik terendah persis. Seberapa dekat instingmu — ukur sungguhan dengan Trader Passport.
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Analisis informatif dan edukatif yang sepenuhnya berdasarkan materi yang tersedia untuk umum (liputan pihak ketiga bertanggal atas wawancaranya, ditautkan di tiap panggilan). Bukan nasihat keuangan atau investasi. Angka bersifat perkiraan dan terus berubah. Spotted an error, or are you Mark? Kirim koreksi →
Akun terverifikasi · Sumber dicantumkan di atas · Metodologi penilaian · Diperbarui 7 October 2026
