@ki_young_ju
The on-chain analyst who runs the data terminal half the market quotes — and who changes his mind in public, loudly, with a timestamp. Inside thirteen weeks in 2026 he called an 18-month bear market, told holders relief was coming, then declared the bear cycle over. The relief call paid, the bear call has since gone against him, and the all-clear is still running. He is worth tracking anyway, because he leaves the whole record standing — including the parts that make him look bad.
Singkatnya. Ki Young Ju ikut mendirikan CryptoQuant pada 2019 dan menjadikannya salah satu penyedia data on-chain yang paling banyak dikutip di kripto. Analisis publiknya bertumpu pada satu gagasan: Realized Cap — berapa banyak uang riil yang benar-benar masuk ke Bitcoin — diukur terhadap kapitalisasi pasar untuk membedakan bull market dari bear market. Lensa itu membuatnya lebih awal soal Terra-Luna dan FTX. Lensa yang sama juga membuatnya berbalik arah berulang kali dan di depan publik, paling terkenal pada 2025 ketika ia menyatakan siklus bull berakhir, meminta maaf tujuh minggu kemudian, lalu menyaksikan Bitcoin melaju ke rekor baru. Pola yang sama muncul pada 2026: bear market sampai 2027 pada 29 Mei, lalu «The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.» pada 25 Agustus. Ia bukan penyeru level harga — ia penyeru rezim pasar, dan rezimnya berbalik.
Lahir pada 1992 dan menempuh pendidikan di Pohang University of Science and Technology, Ki bekerja sebagai insinyur perangkat lunak sebelum mendirikan kelompok riset blockchain Korea Planet B pada 2018 dan ikut mendirikan CryptoQuant bersama sesama alumni pada April 2019. Perusahaan itu menjual data on-chain dan aliran bursa kepada dana dan trader — Chosun Daily dari Korea Selatan menyebutnya «Bloomberg-nya kripto» — dan pada Juli 2022 menjadi penyedia data untuk CME Group. Reputasi CryptoQuant dibangun di atas dua peringatan dini: aliran Bitcoin yang tidak lazim menjelang keruntuhan Terra-Luna pada Mei 2022, dan kemudian sinyal seputar FTX.
Metode publiknya sengaja dibuat sempit. Realized Cap memperlakukan koin yang masuk ke dompet sebagai pembelian dan yang keluar sebagai penjualan, sehingga menghasilkan perkiraan modal yang benar-benar ditempatkan di Bitcoin; membandingkannya dengan kapitalisasi pasar memberi tahu dia apakah uang baru sedang menggerakkan harga. Ketika aliran masuk besar gagal mengangkat harga, ia menyebutnya bear. Ketika aliran kecil mengangkatnya jauh, ia menyebutnya bull. Kerangka yang bersih — dan ia menghasilkan seruan rezim yang penuh percaya diri.
Kerangka itu juga menghasilkan pembalikan, dan Ki tidak menyembunyikannya. Pada 17 Maret 2025 ia memposting «#Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action», mengembangkannya menjadi utas panjang soal Realized Cap pada 5 April, lalu pada 9 Mei 2025 menulis: «Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong… I apologize for the incorrect prediction.» Bitcoin kemudian mencetak rekor tertinggi baru pada Oktober — pemberitaan menempatkan puncaknya di sekitar $126 ribu. Kesalahan itu berada di luar jendela harga yang digambar di bawah, tetapi tetap layak dicatat; dan pernyataan-pernyataan 2026 memperlihatkan refleks yang sama: pada 1 Februari 2026 ia menulis bahwa «this bear market will likely form a wide-ranging sideways consolidation», pada 29 Mei ia memperpanjang bear market hingga awal 2027, dan pada 21–25 Agustus ia sudah menyerukan dasar sekaligus akhir siklus bear. Bacalah ia sebagai opini yang bersenjatakan data dan cepat diperbarui — bukan sebagai ramalan yang bisa dituntut kepadanya.
Sources: x.com/ki_young_ju · cryptoquant.com · Cointelegraph, CoinDesk, Bitcoin.com News coverage
Rezim on-chain, bukan level harga. Ki nyaris tidak pernah memposting target. Ia memposting sebuah keadaan pasar — bull, bear, menyamping, dasar sudah terbentuk — yang diturunkan dari Realized Cap terhadap kapitalisasi pasar, untung/rugi pemegang jangka pendek, indikator Bull/Bear Market Cycle (dibangun dari MVRV, NUPL, dan SOPR terhadap rata-rata 365 harinya), serta data aliran bursa dan ETF. Kekuatannya: pernyataan seperti itu bisa dibantah, bertanggal, dan berakar pada data nyata, bukan perasaan. Kelemahannya adalah waktu: sinyal rezim bisa benar secara struktural namun tetap enam minggu terlalu cepat atau terlambat, dan rekam jejaknya sendiri menunjukkan ia akan membalik penilaian rezim dalam dua belas minggu begitu datanya berbalik.
Bullish — he called the bottom on 21 August and declared the bear cycle over on 25 August, and has pressed further since: on 21 September he pointed to BTC reclaiming its 365-day average at $83K as the end-of-bear line, the next day posted “Bitcoin bull run just started, but no one cares.”, and on 23 September published the analysts' STRONG BUY consensus for Ethereum. He has also tempered the upside — a 3–5x cycle, not another 10x parabola. It is all a reversal of the bear-into-2027 stance he held in May, so treat the bias as live and revisable rather than settled.
Twelve dated, in-window statements — eleven of them his own X posts, one a quote confirmed on Bitcoin.com News — charted against real price. He is a regime caller, so we judge each one on what price actually did next rather than on a level being hit. The sample is deliberately unflattering in places: it opens with an on-chain all-clear posted 37% above the summer low. For the record beyond this chart window, his headline 2025 call — “#Bitcoin bull cycle is over”, March 2025 — was wrong enough that he publicly apologised for it seven weeks later.
“Bitcoin short-term holders are no longer under pressure to sell at a loss.”
An on-chain all-clear — not a target, but a published read that forced selling had stopped. It went out at $80,482, and what came next was the opposite of relief: BTC fell −27.2% to $58,566 by 1 July. Until 22 September no close since had been even 1% above it; that day BTC reached $86,597 (+7.6%), and it is +5.4% today. Four months mostly underwater after an all-clear is still a miss. The indicator was doing what it says on the tin; as a signal of what came next it failed.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin short-term holders are no longer under pressure to sell at a loss.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.”
The mechanism — profit-taking cascades drag investor PnL for ~18 months — was right for five weeks: BTC fell −20.5% from $73,652 to the $58,566 low. Then it wasn't. He abandoned the thesis himself on 25 August, roughly five months before his own deadline, and on 21 September described BTC's reclaim of its 365-day average as the line everyone watches for the end of the bear. BTC has since closed as high as $86,597 (+17.6%) and is +15.1% today. Early 2027 has not arrived, but the caller has withdrawn the call and price has gone the other way, so we now log it against — changed from open on 4 October.
𝕏 Post“…the bear market could last until early 2027.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“The market may need a proper reset before it can build a stronger recovery, rather than continue drifting sideways.”
In a long thread telling @saylor to pause buying, he argued Strategy's bid was “more like a liquidity sink than a price catalyst” and that weak hands had not been flushed. From $62,662 the flush never came: the deepest close after it was −6.5%, and BTC then ran +38.2% to $86,597. It is +35.3% today. The recovery he said needed a reset happened without one.
𝕏 Post“The market may need a proper reset…” — @ki_young_ju on Strategy's BTC buying↗ x.com“If Bitcoin can absorb $1T+ in realized cap, another parabolic bull run remains on the table.”
Timing this well is rare: $58,566 is the lowest daily close in the entire window, and BTC has not closed below it since — +44.8% to today, +47.9% at the high. But read the call, not the chart. It is conditional on Bitcoin absorbing $1T+ in realized cap, we have seen no evidence that it has, and $84,793 is not a parabola. On 22 September he narrowed it himself, saying he expects this cycle to deliver “3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally”. Structurally “still early, not invalidated” — so, open.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin likely has another parabolic cycle ahead.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Some bullish Bitcoin opium is coming in the next few months to relieve your bear market pain. Just not yet. Hang in there.”
A soft call with a hard shape: relief is coming, but not yet. Both halves landed. From $63,193 the deepest close after was only −1.4%, and the relief arrived well inside “the next few months” — BTC has since run +37.0% to $86,597 and is +34.2% today. Note he framed it as a bear-market bounce, not a trend change; the trend change is what he claimed six weeks later.
SourceCryptoquant CEO Tells Bitcoin Holders to “Hang in There” — Bitcoin.com News↗ news.bitcoin.com“BTC looking strong here. Rallies like this in bear markets usually signal the bottom is in.”
Called into strength at $73,021 — the risky way to call a bottom — and it has held: not one daily close below that price since, +18.6% at the high and +16.1% today. He hedged with “might see a dip”; the deepest close since was $75,590, still above his call. The obvious caveat is that this is the same analyst who, twelve weeks earlier, put the bear market's end in 2027.
𝕏 Post“Rallies like this in bear markets usually signal the bottom is in.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.”
Four words, posted at $78,974 when CryptoQuant's Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator turned positive for the first time since early October. Price dipped −4.3% to $75,590 by 16 September, then broke out: +9.7% at the $86,597 high on 22 September, +7.4% today. On 21 September he posted that BTC had reclaimed its 365-day average at $83K — the line he called the one everyone watches for the end of the bear. Encouraging, but a bear cycle is not proven over in six weeks, and BTC is still well below its 2025 peak — this is open.
𝕏 Post“The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“The peak of this bull cycle will likely be driven by institutional money and ETFs outside the US.”
Two days after declaring the bear cycle over, he put a shape on what comes next: the top of this cycle gets made by non-US institutional flows, with Korea — no spot ETF, no foreign products for retail, companies locked out of exchanges — as the example of the demand still sitting on the sidelines. It went out at $79,018. Since then the low is $75,590 (−4.3%), the high $86,597 (+9.6%), and BTC is +7.3% today. Nothing in five weeks of price tests a claim about where a cycle peak originates, so it is logged open — but note the assumption underneath it: that this bull cycle has a peak still ahead of it.
𝕏 Post“The peak of this bull cycle will likely be driven by institutional money and ETFs outside the US.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Bitcoin analysts' consensus: STRONG BUY”
Four words and a chart. Read it precisely: he is publishing the analyst-sentiment gauge, not his own target — but it is a bullish signal posted under his name. From $79,093 it cost money first, −4.4% to $75,590 on 16 September, then paid: +9.5% to the $86,597 high on 22 September and +7.2% today. A buy signal that is up within four weeks has done its job, so we now log it played out — changed from open on 4 October. Whether the regime behind it holds is what his 25 August call is for.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin analysts' consensus: STRONG BUY” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“BTC reclaimed the 365MA at $83K and is sitting above $84K. That's the line everyone's been watching for the end of the bear. If it holds, momentum traders and institutions start FOMOing in.”
A level and a condition: the 365-day moving average at $83K, and if it holds, FOMO follows. Posted at 09:36 UTC, when by his own account BTC was already above $84K; the chart marks it at that day's 00:00 UTC point of $81,169, so read the +4.5% to today with that head start in mind. The line has held: the lowest daily close since is $83,479. The FOMO is less clear — BTC closed at $86,597 (+6.7%) the next day and has drifted sideways below it since, at $84,793 today. Held, not yet chased: open.
𝕏 Post“If it holds, momentum traders and institutions start FOMOing in.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“I expect this Bitcoin bull cycle to deliver 3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally, followed by a milder bear market.”
His most specific cycle call yet, in a long post arguing that institutional ownership now damps both extremes: a 3–5x bull cycle instead of a 10x+ parabola, and a milder bear market after it. The post gives no base price and no date for the 3–5x, so there is no level to grade yet. It went out on the day of the window's highest close, $86,597; BTC has since closed as low as $83,479 (−3.6%) and is −2.1% today. A claim about the shape of a multi-year cycle cannot be settled in twelve days — open. It also narrows his 1 July talk of “another parabolic bull run”.
𝕏 Post“3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Analyst consensus on Ethereum: STRONG BUY”
The same CryptoQuant analyst-consensus gauge as his 8 September Bitcoin post, this time for Ethereum — a published sentiment reading, not his own target, but posted under his name. It went out at 08:44 UTC; the chart marks it at that day's 00:00 UTC point of $2,753, which has turned out to be ETH's highest close since. The low is $2,668 (−3.1%) and ETH is −2.2% today. Eleven days in, it has not paid — open.
𝕏 Post“Analyst consensus on Ethereum: STRONG BUY” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated position against real price, not his own scoring. Every quote is verbatim from the linked X post or article. Fresh calls can flip as the cycle resolves — the newest call here, 23 September, has eleven days of data behind it and is logged open for exactly that reason.
Insentifnya luar biasa mudah dibaca: ia menjual data, bukan sinyal. Itu menghapus masalah promosi token, tetapi memunculkan masalah lain — produk CryptoQuant memang analitik on-chain, dan postingan publiknya adalah etalasenya.
Bisnisnya adalah terminal data berbayar — analitik on-chain dan aliran bursa yang dijual ke dana, meja trading, dan investor ritel dalam paket berjenjang. Analisis gratisnya di X adalah corong pemasaran untuk produk itu; ini penyelarasan yang lebih bersih daripada grup berbayar, tapi tetap sebuah kepentingan.
CryptoQuant memasok data on-chain secara komersial, termasuk perjanjian penyediaan dengan CME Group yang diteken pada Juli 2022. Distribusi institusional memberi imbalan bagi yang banyak dikutip, dan itu mendorong klaim yang kuat dan mudah dikutip.
Keuntungannya ada pada perusahaan yang ia dirikan bersama, bukan pada buku trading yang ia publikasikan. Ia tidak menjalankan layanan sinyal dan tidak mempromosikan token — jadi ketika ia membalik rezim, tidak ada perpanjangan langganan yang bergantung pada pembalikan itu.
“Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.”
29 May 2026 · jam bear yang kemudian ia tinggalkan“Some bullish Bitcoin opium is coming in the next few months to relieve your bear market pain. Just not yet. Hang in there.”
10 Jul 2026 · yang satu ini kena, bahkan lebih cepat“Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong.”
09 May 2025 · ralat publiknya — di luar jendela ini, tetap masuk catatanKutipan diambil dari sumber publik miliknya sendiri; pandangan yang dinyatakan, bukan rekomendasi.
Tidak ada pustaka video untuk ditautkan. Ki tidak membuat podcast dan tidak punya kanal sendiri — keluaran publiknya adalah postingan X dan catatan riset CryptoQuant; selebihnya adalah wawancara pihak ketiga. Persis karena itulah setiap pernyataan di atas berupa kutipan bertanggal dengan tautan, bukan potongan video.
Salah satu pendiri sekaligus CEO CryptoQuant, perusahaan data on-chain Korea Selatan yang berdiri pada 2019 dan menjual analitik blockchain serta aliran bursa kepada dana dan trader. Ia salah satu analis on-chain yang paling banyak dikutip di kripto, dan memposting pembacaan pasar Bitcoin kepada sekitar 434.000 pengikut di X.
Tidak terverifikasi secara publik. Kekayaannya terikat pada kepemilikannya di CryptoQuant, perusahaan swasta yang tidak mengungkap laporan keuangan. Abaikan angka spesifik mana pun yang Anda lihat dikutip — tidak ada yang terkonfirmasi.
Yes, and he says so himself. In March 2025 he declared the bull cycle over; on 9 May 2025 he posted “Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong” and apologised. Bitcoin then made a new all-time high. In 2026 he called a bear market lasting into early 2027 on 29 May, then declared the bear cycle over on 25 August. Of the twelve dated 2026 calls charted above, three played out, six are still open and three went against him.
Realized Cap — perkiraan on-chain tentang berapa banyak modal riil yang masuk ke Bitcoin — dibandingkan dengan kapitalisasi pasar, ditambah untung/rugi pemegang jangka pendek, aliran bursa dan ETF, serta indikator Bull/Bear Market Cycle milik CryptoQuant. Ia menyerukan rezim pasar (bull, bear, dasar sudah terbentuk) alih-alih level atau target harga.
Ki mengubah pendapat ketika datanya berubah, dan menanggung risiko reputasi secara terbuka. Seberapa dekat naluri Anda dengan itu — ukur betulan dengan Trader Passport.
Bagaimanapun, satu-satunya ujian yang menuntaskannya adalah rekam jejak Anda sendiri. Bertransaksilah dengan data pasar sungguhan — tanpa risiko modal — di turnamen gratis BuyCrypt dengan hadiah nyata.
Analisis informatif dan edukatif yang sepenuhnya berdasarkan materi publik — postingan X bertanggal miliknya sendiri dan pemberitaan pihak ketiga yang bertanggal, ditautkan pada setiap pernyataan. Bukan nasihat keuangan atau investasi. Angka bersifat perkiraan dan terus berubah. Spotted an error, or are you Ki? Kirim koreksi →
Akun terverifikasi · Sumber dicantumkan di atas · Metodologi penilaian · Diperbarui 4 October 2026
