@CarpeNoctom
An Ichimoku chartist who runs trading at the crypto ETF issuer Canary Capital and posts short, dated chart calls to about 149,000 followers. In 2026 his turns were mostly well timed. On 29 May, with Bitcoin at $73,652, he said it was probably headed for a 200-week moving average test, and six days later it was there. His April title “Here's How $BTC Hits ATH in 2026” is still a long way off, his September “M top” call was followed by a breakout, and he dropped his 6 October “rdy to rock” setup himself the next day.
Singkatnya. Josh Olszewicz trades Bitcoin and Ether from the Ichimoku cloud and classic chart patterns, and posts the setups on X as @CarpeNoctom. On our sample of eight in-window posts the record is 5 played out, 1 open, 2 went against. The best call was the bearish turn of 29 May: from $73,652 he expected a test of the 200-week moving average, which came on 4 June at $64,047 (−13.0%). He also called the July inverse head-and-shoulders target of 70k+ and Ether's August breakout (+32.2% in two weeks). The misses were the 11 September M top, which pointed to $70k–$72k while Bitcoin went to $86,597 instead, and a 6 October 4-hour breakout call that he abandoned the next day (“so much for that”). His 20 April title, a path to a new all-time high in 2026, is still open.
Josh Olszewicz adalah VP dan Kepala Trading di Canary Capital, manajer aset AS yang menerbitkan ETF kripto. Bio X-nya berbunyi “Canary.Capital PM & Head of Trading”. Menurut halaman tim Canary sendiri, sebelumnya ia memimpin riset kripto di BraveNewCoin, menjadi manajer portofolio di Techemy Capital, dan menjabat Kepala Riset di Valkyrie Investments. Sebelum kripto, ia mengajar ilmu laboratorium di tingkat universitas, dan memiliki gelar sarjana Biologi Manusia serta magister Bioteknologi. Ia sudah berada di X sebagai @CarpeNoctom sejak Maret 2009.
Kontennya mengikuti ritme mingguan: video “Setup Sunday”, “Macro Monday”, acara “Alt Coins”, dan siaran langsung “Broad Market Review” setiap Jumat, ditambah unggahan mingguan tentang data Commitments of Traders (CoT) CME dan arus ETF spot AS. Sebagian besar unggahan grafiknya mencakup saham selain kripto. Halaman ini hanya menilai prediksinya untuk Bitcoin dan Ether, karena itulah harga yang dilacak situs ini.
He also discloses a miss of his own. On 3 June 2026 he reposted his March 2018 post “ya, still on track for 33k by July” with the line “Heroes get remembered but bad calls never die”. Bitcoin did not come close to $33k in 2018. His weekly CoT posts read the data as bearish for most of the window, including through the July–September rally. We treat those as data reports, not price calls, and do not chart them. Eight posts qualified as calls, and several more were examined and excluded. Each is listed with its reason in the verified corpus.
Sources: x.com/CarpeNoctom (captured via api.fxtwitter.com and X syndication) · canary.capital/about · canaryetfs.com · linktr.ee/carpenoctom · YouTube oEmbed
Awan yang menentukan. Olszewicz membaca tren dari awan Ichimoku (“kumo”): di atasnya berarti bullish, di bawahnya bearish, dan breakout menembus awan adalah sinyal. Ia memadukannya dengan pola klasik: head-and-shoulders dan inverse head-and-shoulders, double top (“M”), falling wedge, dan target Fibonacci. Sebagian besar unggahannya hanya satu baris dan satu grafik, dengan target atau level invalidasi. Itu membuatnya mudah dinilai. Kekuatannya adalah berbalik arah bersama tren: dalam sampel ini ia beralih bearish tepat sebelum penurunan Juni dan kembali bullish sebelum breakout Agustus. Kelemahannya adalah pola yang tidak pernah terpicu: puncak M September membaca sebuah jeda sebagai puncak.
Mendekati netral, dan berubah mengikuti grafik. Ia bullish pada April dan awal Mei, berbalik bearish pada 29 Mei di bawah awan harian, kembali bullish pada Juli dan Agustus, lalu menandai kemungkinan puncak pada September. Pada 30 September ia menulis bahwa ia “never seen Q3 this bullish”.
Eight dated posts from @CarpeNoctom, each captured verbatim from X and charted against real price. The tally is 5 played out, 1 open, 2 went against. The record is strongest at the turns: the 29 May call for a 200-week moving average test, the 5 June “no bottom yet”, the 20 July 70k+ target and Ether's August breakout all played out. The 11 September M top and the 6 October “rdy to rock” setup went against, and the April all-time-high title is still open.
“4h $BTC looks rdy to rock (iHS)”
A bullish inverse head-and-shoulders on the 4-hour chart, posted at $85,771, the day after Bitcoin's October high. Four hours later he corrected his own post to “looked*”, and on 7 October he added: “well, so much for that, on to the next trade”. No higher daily mark followed. Bitcoin fell to $81,686 (−4.8%) on 9 October and $81,408 (−5.1%) on 18 October, and it is at $81,810 (−4.6%) now. He called the miss himself, within a day. Went against.
𝕏 Post“4h $BTC looks rdy to rock (iHS)” — @CarpeNoctom on X↗ x.com“looks like a potential M top here, downside fibs = 70-72”
Pembacaan double top bearish pada grafik harian, diunggah di $76,555, dengan target Fibonacci di $70k–$72k. Penurunan tidak datang. Nilai harian terendah setelahnya adalah $75,590 (−1.3%) pada 16 September, jauh dari target. Seminggu kemudian Bitcoin breakout ke $86,597 (+13.1%), dan kini bertahan di $81,810 (+6.9%). Meleset.
𝕏 Post“looks like a potential M top here, downside fibs = 70-72” — @CarpeNoctom on X↗ x.com“ethereum:native prepping for breakout”
Prediksi breakout untuk Ether, diunggah di $1,902 setelah berminggu-minggu bergerak menyamping. Harga turun ke $1,871 (−1.6%) pada 11 Agustus, lalu breakout: $2,515 (+32.2%) pada 22 Agustus dan $2,775 (+45.9%) pada 22 September. Kini bertahan di $2,403 (+26.3%). Terbukti.
𝕏 Post“ethereum:native prepping for breakout” — @CarpeNoctom on X↗ x.com“a small nudge and $BTC is in full breakout territory iHS target = 70k+”
Target inverse head-and-shoulders, diunggah di $64,670. Dorongannya butuh sebulan. Bitcoin awalnya tergelincir ke $62,773 (−2.9%) pada 2 Agustus. Lalu untuk pertama kalinya ditutup di atas $70k pada 21 Agustus di $73,021 (+12.9%), dan terus naik ke $86,597 (+33.9%). Kini bertahan di $81,810 (+26.5%). Terbukti.
𝕏 Post“a small nudge and $BTC is in full breakout territory” — @CarpeNoctom on X↗ x.com“$BTC pi cycle bottom suggests more no bottom yet”
Pembacaan indikator siklus, diunggah di $63,811 sehari setelah Bitcoin menyentuh rata-rata 200 minggunya. Penurunan berlanjut: $60,855 (−4.6%) pada 7 Juni, dan titik terendah 2026 di $58,566 (−8.2%) pada 1 Juli. Baru setelah itu dasar terbentuk. Bitcoin kemudian naik ke $86,597 (+35.7%) dan kini bertahan di $81,810 (+28.2%). Terbukti.
𝕏 Post“$BTC pi cycle bottom suggests more no bottom yet” — @CarpeNoctom on X↗ x.com“if channel support doesnt save this then we are probably headed for a 200WMA test bearish lean negated if/when price >79k above cloud”
Pembalikan bearish, diunggah di $73,652 saat Bitcoin berada di bawah awan harian dan menembus pola head-and-shoulders. Support kanal tidak bertahan. Pada 4 Juni Bitcoin tercatat di $64,047 (−13.0%), dan ia mengunggah bahwa harga telah mencapai rata-rata bergerak 200 minggu untuk pertama kalinya sejak Oktober 2023. Harga mencapai dasar di $58,566 (−20.5%) pada 1 Juli. Level invalidasinya, penutupan di atas $79k, baru terjadi pada 27 Agustus di $79,018, tiga bulan kemudian. Bitcoin kini di $81,810 (+11.1%), tetapi prediksinya adalah soal uji tersebut, dan uji itu terjadi. Terbukti.
𝕏 Post“1D $BTC — below daily Cloud now, bottom of channel, active H&S breakdown” — @CarpeNoctom on X↗ x.com“4h $BTC poised for a Sun open attempt higher”
Prediksi jangka pendek pada grafik 4 jam, diunggah di $78,677. Bitcoin naik: $81,437 (+3.5%) pada 7 Mei dan $82,018 (+4.2%) pada 11 Mei, puncaknya di musim semi. Malam yang sama ia menulis bahwa pemulihan dari penurunan itu adalah yang tercepat sepanjang masa “if the low holds”. Level terendah tidak bertahan: pada 1 Juli Bitcoin berada di $58,566 (−25.6%). Kini di $81,810 (+4.0%). Prediksi jangka pendeknya terbukti; pergerakan yang lebih besar setelahnya berlawanan arah.
𝕏 Post“4h $BTC poised for a Sun open attempt higher” — @CarpeNoctom on X↗ x.com“Setup Sunday: Here's How $BTC Hits ATH in 2026”
The title of his weekly video, posted at $73,841, laying out a path to a new all-time high this year. The record is the October 2025 peak, above $120,000. Bitcoin first rose to $82,018 (+11.1%) on 11 May, then fell to $58,566 (−20.7%) on 1 July. It recovered to $86,597 (+17.3%) on 22 September and is at $81,810 (+10.8%) now. With ten weeks left in 2026, the record is still far away. Open.
𝕏 Post“Setup Sunday: Here's How $BTC Hits ATH in 2026” — @CarpeNoctom on X↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of the stated claim against real price, not his own scoring. Every quote is a verbatim X post, linked on its card and reproduced in full in the verified corpus. X's API writes the BTC and ETH token tags as “bitcoin:native” and “ethereum:native”, and we quote them as returned. We did not chart his weekly CoT and ETF-flow posts (data reports), hedged posts (“bull flag possible”), a 3 May post that was conditional on the low holding (it did not hold), or a later Puell Multiple post that restated the July bull case and would have scored as a win. From the 20 October refresh we also left out hedged or pattern-watch posts: “4h $BTC FW potential” (17 September), “1D $ETH unconfirmed hidden bull div” (8 October) and “$ETH H&S watch” (14 October), along with ratio charts such as SOL/BTC and ETH/BTC. Prices are CoinGecko daily marks, so an intraday post is measured from that day's mark. The 6 October card is graded from his own follow-ups, “looked*” the same day and “well, so much for that, on to the next trade” on 7 October, and from price. The “$1,000 masuk pada panggilan itu” line assumes buying on the post date; for the bearish 29 May and 11 September cards, that line is not a short. Near-term marks can flip.
Unggahan dan siaran Olszewicz gratis. Penghasilan utamanya berasal dari pekerjaannya, dan halaman tautannya memuat tautan bursa. Inilah yang kami temukan.
Ia adalah VP dan Kepala Trading di Canary Capital, yang menerbitkan ETF kripto AS, termasuk dana HBAR, Litecoin, Solana, SUI, TRX, dan XRP. Perusahaan ini tidak mencantumkan ETF Bitcoin atau Ether. Saat ia mengunggah tentang altcoin dalam dana-dana itu, ingatlah bahwa perusahaannya memperoleh biaya dari dana tersebut. Pada 19 September ia mengunggah “Time to buy some $SUIS ?”, yang merupakan ticker ETF Staked SUI milik Canary.
Tautan pertama di Linktree-nya adalah Kraken Pro, melalui tautan mitra yang dilacak (kraken.pxf.io). Tautan semacam ini biasanya membayar perujuk saat seseorang mendaftar atau bertransaksi. Kami tidak menemukan ajakan referral bursa di unggahan X-nya.
Acara “Setup Sunday”, “Macro Monday”, dan “Broad Market Review” disiarkan gratis di X, YouTube, dan Twitch. Kami tidak menemukan newsletter berbayar, grup berbayar, atau kursus.
“if channel support doesnt save this then we are probably headed for a 200WMA test”
29 May 2026 · pembalikan yang terbukti“Heroes get remembered but bad calls never die”
3 Jun 2026 · membagikan ulang kesalahannya tahun 2018“never seen Q3 this bullish”
30 Sep 2026 · tentang reli Bitcoin Juli–SeptemberKutipan diambil dari sumber publik miliknya sendiri; ini pandangan yang dinyatakan, bukan rekomendasi.
Olszewicz melakukan siaran di YouTube (@carpenoctom), di X dan di Twitch, dan membagikan setiap acara di X. “Broad Market Review” setiap Jumat membahas kripto, makro, dan saham. Siaran terbaru yang dapat kami verifikasi:
Broad Market Review: Drop It Like Its HotDisiarkan pada hari prediksi puncak M-nya.11 Sep 2026
Broad Market Review: Breakout ConfirmedBreakout Bitcoin bulan April, tiga hari sebelum video harga tertinggi sepanjang masa.17 Apr 2026
Broad Market Review - Home on the Choppy RangeBitcoin terjebak dalam rentangnya pada awal April.3 Apr 2026Trader dan analis kripto yang mengunggah sebagai @CarpeNoctom di X kepada sekitar 149,000 pengikut. Ia adalah VP dan Kepala Trading di Canary Capital, dan sebelumnya menjabat Kepala Riset di Valkyrie Investments serta memimpin riset kripto di BraveNewCoin. Metodenya adalah awan Ichimoku dan pola grafik klasik.
On our sample of eight dated 2026 posts: five played out, one is still open, two went against. His 29 May call for a 200-week moving average test came true within six days, and his 70k+ Bitcoin and August Ether breakout calls were hit. His 11 September M top call went against, as did a 6 October breakout setup that he dropped himself the next day. His April all-time-high title is still open.
Sistem grafik Jepang yang menggambar pita berarsir, yaitu “awan” atau kumo, dari harga tertinggi dan terendah sebelumnya. Harga di atas awan dibaca sebagai tren naik dan harga di bawahnya sebagai tren turun. Olszewicz menggunakan tembusan melewati awan sebagai sinyal.
Tidak ditemukan produk berbayar. Unggahan dan siarannya gratis. Ia digaji sebagai kepala trading di Canary Capital, dan Linktree-nya memuat tautan Kraken Pro yang dilacak.
Tidak diketahui publik, dan tidak ada angka yang kredibel. Abaikan angka spesifik apa pun yang Anda lihat dikaitkan dengan nama ini.
Olszewicz membiarkan awan yang memutuskan. Seberapa dekat insting Anda? Ukur secara nyata dengan Trader Passport.
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Analisis informatif dan edukatif yang sepenuhnya didasarkan pada materi yang tersedia untuk publik: postingan X bertanggal yang direkam dari endpoint publik X dan sumber yang ditautkan pada setiap seruan. Bukan nasihat keuangan atau investasi. Angka bersifat perkiraan dan terus berubah. Spotted an error, or are you Josh? Kirim koreksi →
Akun terverifikasi · Sumber dicantumkan di atas · Metodologi penilaian · Diperbarui 20 October 2026
