@GertvanLagen
Insinyur Belanda yang beralih jadi pembaca grafik, dan ia memegang satu gagasan yang sangat besar: Bitcoin berada di dalam gelombang terakhir sebuah supersiklus yang dimulai pada 2009, dan gelombang itu berakhir di sekitar $400,000–$450,000. Semua yang ia terbitkan adalah tesis itu, ditulis ulang tiap pekan, lengkap dengan level yang ia pantau — dan justru karena itulah ia bisa dinilai.
Singkatnya. Gert van Lagen (@GertvanLagen, roughly 125,000 followers, on X since December 2009) is one of crypto's most persistent Elliott Wave analysts. His X bio gives the whole framing: “MSc Systems and Control | 🇳🇱 | Macro Strategist | NFA | Strate𝔾”. Since April 2026 he has published a weekly letter, the Strate𝔾 Update, that walks the same route every time — macro pulse, then Bitcoin, then altcoins, stocks, forex — and lands on a wave count pointing at a blow-off top around $400k–$450k. The record below is the honest shape of that: his most bullish week, 5 May, landed six days before Bitcoin's May peak and was followed by a 26.6% collapse; from 17 June through 15 August he repeatedly refused to call it a bear market, and on the day he said the cycle-bottom trendline was being tested Bitcoin fell just 0.2% further before rallying more than a third; and the $82.8k line he made the whole question in September finally broke on 22 September. The supercycle target itself is still roughly 5x away.
Van Lagen orang Belanda dan menggambarkan dirinya, dalam satu-satunya biografi yang benar-benar ia tanda tangani, sebagai MSc in Systems and Control yang bekerja sebagai strateg makro — bio akun X yang ia pegang sejak 4 Desember 2009. Ia tak menawarkan dana kelolaan, perusahaan, atau rekam jejak teraudit; yang ia punya adalah satu dekade grafik Gelombang Elliott publik dan, sejak 22 April 2026, surat mingguan bernama Strate𝔾 yang memakukan grafik-grafik itu ke tanggal.
Metodenya luar biasa mudah dibaca untuk ukuran kripto-X. Setiap Strate𝔾 Update dibuka dengan penafian yang sama — “The information and insights are based on my knowledge; don't take it as financial advice.” — lalu bekerja dari atas ke bawah: kebijakan The Fed, minyak dan inflasi, Russell 2000 sebagai pengukur risk-on-nya, dan barulah Bitcoin, tempat ia menempelkan hitungan gelombang pada dua garis tren panjang: di bawah menghubungkan dasar pasar beruang 2018, dasar Covid 2020 dan dasar 2022; di atas garis sekuler dekat $450K. Level-levelnya bertahan berbulan-bulan — $66k, lalu $82.8k — karena struktur yang ia gambarkan bergerak pelan.
Masalah kejujuran dari hitungan gelombang bertahun-tahun adalah ia nyaris tak pernah salah pada tenggat tertentu, jadi meleset paling sering dikutip miliknya layak dicatat. Pada 9 Maret 2024 ia menulis: “By printing an ATH, BTC price doubled within 10, 18 or 84 days. A move to $200k before the halving gets increasingly more feasible.” Keesokan harinya U.Today menjadikannya judul: “Bitcoin (BTC) at $200,000 Is More Feasible Than You Think.” Bitcoin tak pernah diperdagangkan di $200,000 — menurut suratnya sendiri, siklusnya memuncak di $126k. Disiplin target yang sama yang membuat level mingguannya bisa diperiksa juga menghasilkan angka-angka utama yang tak pernah datang.
Sources: x.com/GertvanLagen (posts captured verbatim via the X syndication endpoint) · gertvanlagen.substack.com (publicly-served text of dated Strate𝔾 Update editions) · U.Today coverage used only to date and locate the 2024 post
Struktur Gelombang Elliott di atas denyut makro. Van Lagen menghitung gelombang — impuls, flat melebar, diagonal melebar — dan menggantungkannya pada garis tren bertahun-tahun, bukan pada indikator. Dasar Bitcoin, dalam kerangkanya, adalah garis biru yang menghubungkan dasar 2018, dasar Covid 2020, dan dasar pasar beruang 2022, diperkuat oleh EMA/SMA 210,000 blok (halving); atapnya adalah garis sekuler yang kini ia hargai di dekat $450K. Di sekelilingnya ada daftar periksa makro yang berulang — jalur The Fed, minyak sebagai biaya input ekonomi, ISM dan data tenaga kerja, serta Russell 2000 sebagai penanda risk-on yang menurutnya memimpin Bitcoin dalam rotasi. Kekuatannya: ia menyebut level penentunya ($74k, $66k, $82.8k) dan mengulanginya sampai jebol. Kelemahannya adalah ketidakcocokan horizon: hitungan yang selesai di $400k tak memberi panduan apa pun soal penurunan 26% di tengah jalan, dan ia tetap bullish secara struktural persis menembus penurunan yang ada di rekam jejak ini.
Bullish secara struktural dan keras kepala. Sepanjang jendela ini ia tak sekali pun berbalik ke panggilan pasar beruang — paling jauh ia menyebut aksi jual sebagai guncangan di dalam konsolidasi — jadi bacalah level mingguannya sebagai penentuan waktu di dalam tesis long permanen, bukan sebagai pandangan dua arah.
Nine dated calls, all of them his own: two posts from @GertvanLagen captured verbatim from X, seven from dated editions of his Strate𝔾 Update. The oldest, 4 March, has since rolled out of the CoinGecko price window and is charted from the window's first day. An honest caveat on selection — the weekly letter is a paid newsletter, and what is charted here is the portion Substack serves publicly (the subtitle and the opening of each section, which is where he states the week's thesis and the level he is watching). The paywalled remainder is not quoted, and it may contain qualifications this page cannot see. The shape that emerges: he was wrong at the top — his most bullish letter, 5 May, came six days before Bitcoin's May peak — and right through the bottom, refusing a bear-market call from 17 June onward and naming the cycle-bottom trendline on 15 August, within 0.2% of the low that followed. The through-line, a wave-5 blow-off at $400k–$450k, is roughly 5x away and is logged open, not correct.
“This week, the $82.8k lower high was finally broken with a strong move higher, shifting the structure from a downtrend to a broken downtrend. This creates a potential double-bottom setup, with the red horizontal line as the neckline and a lower-timeframe target around $120k.”
The week his $82,800 line finally broke, he turned it into a pattern: a double bottom with a lower-timeframe target around $120,000, with BTC at $84,076. So far it is holding but not going: the dip since was only $83,479 (−0.7%) on 29 September — still above the $82.8k he says now has to hold as support — and the best close is $86,490 (+2.9%) on 5 October. At $84,009 (−0.1%) the target is another +42.8% away, so this is logged open.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 39 | Q3 | 2026, “BTC clears $82.8k breaking the 1-year downtrend (!)”↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“Ethereum set to print higher high on weekly chart.”
The headline thesis of that week's letter, stated in its subtitle with ETH at $2,515. It printed: after a −4.7% dip to $2,397 on the 16th, Ethereum ran to $2,775 (+10.4%) on 22 September — the highest price in the whole window — and sits at $2,608 (+3.7%). A small, precise call that did what he said within ten days.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 37 | Q3 | 2026 (gertvanlagen.substack.com, 12 Sep 2026)↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“the $82,8k level really needs to be cleared first, for BTC to print a Higher High - Breaking the cascade of lower lows and lower highs since the $126k top”
With BTC at $79,671 he refused to call the rally a trend change until $82,800 broke — “The $82.8k lower high was not yet defeated.” It dipped first, −5.1% to $75,590 on 16 September, then cleared the line on 22 September at $86,597 (+8.7%), the highest close of the window and the first higher high since the $126k top. It sits at $84,009 (+5.4%), still above level yang disebut. He named the trigger, it broke, and price did what he said it would after — now logged played out (it was open on this page until then).
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 36 | Q3 | 2026 (gertvanlagen.substack.com, 5 Sep 2026)↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“In other words, the present setup resembles cycle-bottom confluence within the final wave, rather than the beginning of a new bear-market regime.”
His best call of the window. With BTC at $62,984 he said it was “currently testing the lower blue trendline connecting the major 2018 bear-market low, the 2020 Covid low, and the 2022 bear-market low” and read it as cycle-bottom confluence. Bitcoin fell just 0.2% further — to $62,844 on 17 August — then ran to $86,597 (+37.5%) by 22 September and trades at $84,009 (+33.4%). The $450K end of that same count remains untouched.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 33 | Q3 | 2026, “Risk-on strengthens as Bitcoin hits historical bottom trend”↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“I anticipate this mid-cycle correction to reverse in the orange zone and first blow-off into the blue Euphoria zone, before it enters the actual bear market.”
Called the summer chop a mid-cycle correction due to reverse, with BTC at $63,917. It reversed almost immediately: the deepest dip after was $62,773 (−1.8%) on 2 August, then $86,597 (+35.5%) on 22 September, now $84,009 (+31.4%). The blow-off he framed it against is a $400k target — that part has not happened.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 31 | Q3 | 2026, “Summer Sideways - Extremely boring”↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“In this regard, I anticipate this final crypto shake-out as part of a consolidation phase, NOT the start of a bear market.”
The first edition in this window to state it in capitals, with BTC at $65,619 stalling under the $66k resistance he had named. He was right about the regime and early on the price: Bitcoin fell another 10.7% to $58,566 on 1 July — the low of the whole window — before running to $86,597 (+32.0%) on 22 September and settling at $84,009 (+28.0%). He repeated this line almost verbatim for five straight weeks; this is where it starts.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 25 | Q2 | 2026 (gertvanlagen.substack.com, 17 Jun 2026)↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“$ETH is printing a highly complex Expanding Diagonal, consisting of 5 corrective waves in a triangular structure. Wave c of 5 of ⑤ is the final blow-off style impulse, targeting the orange box ±$10k-$22k”
Direction right, magnitude nowhere near. From $1,812 Ethereum first fell 13.6% to $1,566 on 26 June, then rallied to $2,775 (+53.2%) on 22 September and sits at $2,608 (+44.0%) — a good call by any normal standard. But the box he named starts at $10,000, which is another +283% from here, and ends at $22,000, +744% away. Logged open: the thesis has not been invalidated and has not paid.
𝕏 Post“Wave c of 5 of ⑤ … targeting the orange box ±$10k-$22k” — @GertvanLagen, 4 Jun 2026↗ x.com“Bitcoin is set to surge toward $400k+. In this section, I will show that both the low- and high-timeframe structures point to this target.”
His most bullish letter of the window, and the worst-timed. BTC was $79,826 and he had just noted it “has now cleared the long-standing $74k resistance!”. Six days later it peaked at $82,018 on 11 May, then fell 26.6% to $58,566 by 1 July. Bitcoin did eventually get past that May high — $86,597 (+8.5%) on 22 September — and is $84,009 (+5.2%) today, but the call pointed up and the next move was a quarter off, and $400k is still +376% away.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 19 | Q2 | 2026, “Bulls need to push through this time!”↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“#Bitcoin has rebounded from the lower trend line of the channel on the weekly close. From here, my primary scenario remains a move toward the upper boundary of the channel, completing wave (5) of ⑤ at ~$400k.”
Posted on 4 March — a day that has since rolled out of this chart's price window, so the chart now anchors at $70,029 on 12 March. The near-term half worked: Bitcoin ran to $82,018 by 11 May, gave it back to $58,566 (−16.4%) on 1 July, then made the high of the window, $86,597 (+23.7%), on 22 September, and is $84,009 (+20.0%) now. The stated destination is not close: $400k is +376% from today's price. Up 20% is not a wrong call — but it is not the call he made, so it stays open.
𝕏 Post“my primary scenario remains a move toward the upper boundary of the channel … at ~$400k” — @GertvanLagen, 4 Mar 2026↗ x.comHasil penilaian adalah pembacaan kami atas posisi yang ia nyatakan terhadap penutupan harian nyata CoinGecko, bukan penilaiannya sendiri. Harga di teks berasal dari seri data yang sama dengan yang dipakai menggambar grafik. Target jangka panjang yang levelnya bahkan belum didekati dicatat sebagai terbuka alih-alih dihitung sebagai tepat, dan penilaian jangka pendek bisa berbalik seiring siklus terselesaikan. Bila sebuah kalimat berulang di beberapa surat mingguan, kartunya memakai edisi tempat kalimat itu pertama kali muncul dalam jendela ini.
Bisnisnya adalah satu buletin berbayar dengan harga terbuka, ditambah ekonomi konferensi yang datang bersama audiens enam digit. Tak ada grup sinyal, tak ada token, tak ada afiliasi bursa yang kami temukan — tapi harga suratnya justru insentif yang perlu diketahui, karena separuh gratisnya adalah bagian yang harus terdengar mendesak.
Strate𝔾 Update adalah mingguan berbayar. Objek paket yang disajikan di halaman berlangganan publiknya berbunyi “$26.50 a month” dan “$265 a year” (USD, dibuat Juli 2025). Dari 23 tulisan di arsipnya per 20 September 2026, 21 hanya untuk pelanggan berbayar — termasuk setiap surat pasar. Yang publik adalah subjudul dan pembuka tiap bagian, dan itulah yang dipetakan halaman ini.
Pada 26 Mei 2026 ia menerbitkan dua tulisan gratis: satu untuk Dutch Blockchain Week dengan subjudul “Want a ticket? Use my discount code: GertvanLagen15”, dan satu untuk Proof of Talk di Louvre — “I have 10 nomination spots, and I am giving you the opportunity to be part of it!” Tak satu pun mengungkap apakah kode atau jatah nominasi itu disertai bayaran atau komisi.
Ia sudah bertahun-tahun menerbitkan hitungan gelombang $400k–$450k yang sama, dan audiens suratnya membeli justru karena hitungan itu masih hidup. Ini bukan konflik kepentingan tersembunyi — tertulis di setiap edisi — tapi menjelaskan sikapnya: sepanjang tujuh bulan rekam jejak ini ia tak sekali pun menyatakan pasar beruang, termasuk pada pekan sebelum penurunan 26%.
“In other words, the present setup resembles cycle-bottom confluence within the final wave, rather than the beginning of a new bear-market regime.”
15 Aug 2026 · dua hari sebelum titik terendah, dan benar“Bitcoin is set to surge toward $400k+.”
05 May 2026 · six days before the May peak“I anticipate this final crypto shake-out as part of a consolidation phase, NOT the start of a bear market.”
17 Jun 2026 · kalimat yang ia ulang lima pekan berturut-turut“A move to $200k before the halving gets increasingly more feasible.”
09 Mar 2024 · meleset yang masih dikutipkan kepadanyaKutipan diambil dari sumber publik miliknya sendiri; ini pandangan yang dinyatakan, bukan rekomendasi.
There is no video library to link — van Lagen has no channel of his own. His public output is charts on X and the weekly Strate𝔾 Update on Substack, which is why every call above is a timestamped post or a dated letter rather than a clip. The editions behind seven of the nine cards are public at the links on those cards; the full corpus, with the live verification log, is cited in the sources line.
Strateg makro dan analis Gelombang Elliott asal Belanda yang memublikasikan analisis grafik Bitcoin untuk sekitar 125,000 pengikut di X sebagai @GertvanLagen, dan sejak April 2026 menerbitkan buletin mingguan berbayar, Strate𝔾 Update. Bio-nya sendiri menyebut ia bergelar MSc in Systems and Control; ia tak mengungkap dana kelolaan, perusahaan, maupun rekam jejak teraudit.
Hitungan Gelombang Elliott-nya yang tetap menempatkan puncak euforia gelombang 5 dari supersiklus yang dimulai 2009 di garis tren atas kanalnya — yang ia hargai sekitar $400,000 dan, dalam surat-surat Agustus 2026, “currently around $450K”. Target itu bahkan belum didekati: sekitar 5x harga hari ini, dan dosier ini mencatatnya sebagai terbuka, bukan benar.
Tidak diketahui publik dan tidak bisa diverifikasi. Ia tak mengungkap dana kelolaan, perusahaan, atau ukuran posisi; satu-satunya bisnis yang terlihat adalah Substack berbayar $26.50 per bulan. Abaikan angka spesifik apa pun yang dilekatkan pada namanya — tak satu pun terkonfirmasi.
He is a commentator, not a licensed adviser, and the record cuts both ways: of nine dated calls we charted, five played out, three are open and one went clearly against him — he was at his most bullish six days before Bitcoin's May peak, and he called the cycle-bottom trendline two days before a local low that undercut him by only 0.2%, ahead of a rally of more than a third. His best-known long-term call, $200k before the April 2024 halving, never happened. Treat his letters as a dated, checkable opinion — never trade them blindly.
Van Lagen memperkecil tampilan sampai kebisingan hilang: satu hitungan gelombang, satu garis tren, satu tujuan bertahun-tahun ke depan. Seberapa dekat instingmu — ukur sungguhan dengan Trader Passport.
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Analisis informatif dan edukatif yang bersandar ketat pada materi publik — unggahan X bertanggal miliknya sendiri dan teks yang disajikan publik dari edisi bertanggal buletinnya, ditautkan di setiap panggilan. Bukan nasihat keuangan atau investasi. Angka bersifat perkiraan dan terus berubah. Spotted an error, or are you Gert? Kirim koreksi →
Akun terverifikasi · Sumber dicantumkan di atas · Metodologi penilaian · Diperbarui 7 October 2026
