@caprioleio
Sosok di balik Hash Ribbons, Bitcoin Energy Value, dan Production Cost — metrik yang dikutip balik oleh para analis lain kepadanya sendiri. Edwards mengelola dana bitcoin sistematis dan menerbitkan model yang dipakai dana itu untuk bertransaksi, lengkap dengan tanggal. Itu membuatnya luar biasa mudah diperiksa: ketika pekerjaan valuasinya berkata «nilai dalam», Anda bisa melihat apa yang kemudian dilakukan harga.
Singkatnya. Charles Edwards mendirikan Capriole Investments pada 2019 dan mengelola Capriole Fund, dana sistematis berlisensi dan teraudit. Ia dikenal bukan karena target harga, melainkan karena membangun metrik valuasi on-chain yang kini dipakai sebagian besar industri — Hash Ribbons, Bitcoin Energy Value, Production Cost, Bitcoin Yardstick. Keluaran publiknya berupa Substack gratis dan lini masa grafik yang padat di X. Rekam jejak di bawah bercampur dengan cara yang informatif: sinyal valuasi lambatnya — «ini zona nilai, tunggu biaya produksi» — bekerja baik sepanjang penurunan 2026, sementara sinyal aliran dan momentum cepatnya — serapan institusional, rotasi stablecoin, titik balik perusahaan treasury — berulang kali menyala hanya beberapa hari sebelum puncak lokal. Metrik aliran institusional yang sama membuatnya bullish pada 5 Mei dan bearish pada 26 Mei; yang terbukti benar adalah paruh bearish-nya.
Edwards adalah pendiri dan CEO Capriole Investments, yang menurut situsnya sendiri «didirikan pada 2019» dan «mengelola Capriole Fund, sebuah master fund berlisensi dan teraudit yang melayani investor di lebih dari 25 negara», dengan «pendekatan investasi sistematis yang menargetkan imbal hasil absolut sepanjang siklus pasar». Strukturnya mencakup satu limited partnership AS dan dua kendaraan di Kepulauan Cayman, dengan operasi di Australia. Ia bukan penjual sinyal ritel: bisnisnya adalah dana itu, dan tulisan publiknya adalah etalasenya.
Kontribusinya yang bertahan lama adalah pengukuran, bukan ramalan. Hash Ribbons (kapitulasi penambang), Bitcoin Energy Value dan Production Cost (pita nilai wajar dari biaya penambangan), Bitcoin Yardstick dan Dynamic Range NVT adalah karyanya; begitu pula model internal yang ia sebut dalam suratnya — Trend King, Macro Index, Bitcoin Perps Heat, dan Market Hedge Ratio. Karena ia menerbitkan pembacaan lengkap dengan tanggal, panggilannya dapat difalsifikasi dengan cara yang tidak dimiliki kebanyakan komentar — dan itu memotong ke dua arah.
Demi kejujuran, satu kekeliruan terdokumentasi yang berada di luar jendela grafik ini: pada 2 Oktober 2025 Cointelegraph memberitakan ia mengatakan bitcoin «bisa melonjak ke rekor tertinggi baru $150,000» sebelum akhir 2025. Itu tidak terjadi — BTC mencapai puncak di dekat $126,000. Panggilan Hash Ribbons dan Energy Value miliknya pada 2019–2021 juga berada di luar jendela harga 210 hari dan tidak diplot di sini. Angka terpisah «$280,000» yang banyak didaur ulang dan dikaitkan dengan unggahan tahun 2024 tidak dapat dilacak ke sumber aslinya, sehingga tidak dinyatakan di mana pun pada halaman ini.
Sources: caprioleio.substack.com · x.com/caprioleio · capriole.com · dated third-party coverage (NewsBTC, Yahoo Finance/BeInCrypto, Bitcoin.com News)
Sistematis dan dipandu valuasi. Edwards bertolak dari biaya produksi dan pita nilai on-chain, bukan pola grafik: di mana harga relatif terhadap biaya seorang penambang memproduksi satu koin, apa kata Yardstick, apakah permintaan institusional di atas atau di bawah emisi harian. Pada horizon panjang ini benar-benar bagus — itulah yang menyuruhnya menunggu sepanjang musim semi dan menyatakan nilai di titik terendah Juni. Kelemahannya muncul pada horizon pendek: sinyal berbasis aliran miliknya (serapan institusional, rotasi stablecoin, pembelian perusahaan treasury) dirumuskan dengan «biasanya» dan «secara historis» dari sampel kecil, dan dalam jendela ini tiga sinyal bullish menyala beberapa hari sebelum puncak lokal — meski metrik yang sama berbalik bearish pada 26 Mei justru tepat, dan itulah tanda khas indikator yang bersifat berbarengan, bukan mendahului. Ia juga menyebut sendiri level invalidasinya, dan itu disiplin sungguhan — ia berkata «di atas $71.5K» dan ia bersungguh-sungguh.
Turned constructive in late September. On 16 September he wanted a weekly close back above $78K, and Bitcoin.com News reported his bias as bearish on a 12-to-18-month view. Once that line was reclaimed his own posts flipped: on 24 September the Bitcoin Yardstick “says: bear market is over” — with a warning of 6-8 weeks of chop first — and on 1 October he called the end of the biggest miner capitulation since 2021 “a macro trend change”. Valuation bull, now leaning bullish near-term as well, chop caveat attached.
Ten dated calls from his own Substack and X feed, plus verbatim quotes in dated press — every one re-fetched live and matched word-for-word against its source before publishing. The split is the story, and it is about horizon, not direction. His valuation work (13 Mar, 9 Jun) was right, the conditional long he defined on 15 April paid and then stopped out exactly where he said it would, on 26 May he reversed on new data and was right again, and the $78K line he drew on 16 September was reclaimed within days. His fast flow signals (1 May, 5 May, 4 Sep) each fired within days of a local high — one on the day itself. His two newest calls, the Yardstick's “bear market is over” (24 Sep) and the end of miner capitulation on his Hash Ribbons (1 Oct), are still open. Five further in-window items were examined and excluded, with the reason for each, in the draft's verified_sources.txt.
“We've just exited the biggest Miner Capitulation since China banned Bitcoin mining and killed 50% of the network overnight in 2021. Hash Rate is seeing its first signs of growth since 2025. This is a macro trend change and how Hash Ribbons should be interpreted in the new era of efficiency.”
His own indicator, read by its author: the miner capitulation Hash Ribbons was built to track is over, and he called it “a macro trend change”. He signed off with “If you know, you know what this means” rather than a level — the end of a capitulation is what his Hash Ribbons buy signal marks, but he gave no target and no timeframe. Posted at 05:37 UTC; the chart marks it at that day's 00:00 UTC point of $83,576. BTC has since reached $84,842 (+1.5%) and is $84,793 (+1.5%). Three days old — open.
𝕏 Post“We've just exited the biggest Miner Capitulation since China banned Bitcoin mining” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“Bitcoin Yardstick says: bear market is over. Bitcoin has broken out of the deep discount zone. Comparable to 2020 and 2023. Price went up triple digits from here each time.”
His own valuation metric — market cap over hash rate — leaving its deep-discount zone, and the most bullish thing he has said in this window. He pointed to 2020 and 2023, when price more than doubled from here, but set no target, and in the same post warned that “both prior times we did chop around here for another 6-8 weeks before moving up.” So far the caveat is the accurate half: from $84,382 BTC has held a $83,479–$84,842 range (−1.1% to +0.5%) and is $84,793 (+0.5%) ten days on. It is also an about-face from his 16 September warning, made once his $78K line had been reclaimed. Open.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin Yardstick says: bear market is over” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“Bitcoin needs a weekly close back above $78K pronto or this could get ugly”
Posted with BTC at $75,590, hours after the US Senate blocked the CLARITY Act. He named one level — a weekly close above $78,000 — and said the alternative gets ugly. The market took the good branch: BTC was back above $78K by 19 September, has held above it at every daily point since, and the day of his post is still the low. It ran to $86,597 (+14.6%) on 22 September and is $84,793 (+12.2%). This was a warning, not a rally forecast, so the credit is for naming the right pivot. Bitcoin.com News had reported his bias as bearish on a 12-to-18-month view; his own posts since have turned bullish — see the two cards above.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin needs a weekly close back above $78K pronto” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“It's very hard for bad things to happen to Bitcoin when Capriole's Market Hedge Ratio is this green. Downside is basically capped in last 5 years until it flips red. Typically this reading means we have week(s) of upside to run.”
His Market Hedge Ratio (USDT/BTC market cap, rolling 30 days) hit −20.42% and he said downside was “basically capped” with weeks of upside to run. The next two weeks said otherwise: from $81,265 on 4 September BTC fell −7.0% to $75,590 by the 16th. The upside did come, but late — BTC first traded above his entry on 22 September, 18 days on, at $86,597 (+6.6%), and sits at $84,793 (+4.3%). Graded against on what he claimed for the weeks that followed: a 7% drawdown first is not capped downside.
SourceIs the Bitcoin Bottom In? 2 Analysts Say Yes From Separate Charts — Yahoo Finance / BeInCrypto↗ finance.yahoo.com“Bitcoin is trading back at its Production cost. Miners are now just breaking even on average. The best Long-term value opportunities have historically been between here and Electrical Cost, currently at $50K.”
His own cost-of-mining model, used as intended: at $63,069 he marked the $50K–$63K band as the historical long-term value zone. It worked. BTC dipped only −7.1% to $58,566 on 1 July — inside the band he named — then ran +37.3% to $86,597 by 22 September and holds $84,793 (+34.4%). The best call on this page.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin is trading back at its Production cost” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“That didn't last long. Institutions are once again dumping on us. … Hard to get meaningful price improvement while this metric is in the red.”
Twenty-one days after the $96K note, the same institutional-flow metric flipped negative and so did he. That call worked: from $77,258 BTC fell −24.2% to $58,566 by 1 July and was never more than +5.2% above his post until 22 September — four months on — when it reached $86,597 (+12.1%); it sits at $84,793 (+9.8%). Credit for reversing fast on new data — but read it against the card below, because it is one indicator contradicting itself inside three weeks, which is the honest case for treating it as coincident rather than predictive.
Source“Institutions Dumping Again”: Charles Edwards Warns ETF Outflows Are Crushing Bitcoin Momentum — Yahoo Finance / CCN↗ finance.yahoo.com“Institutions are slurping up 600%+ of Bitcoin's daily mined supply. Every time it's been this high before, price has shot up over the next week. As the chart shows, we've typically seen double digit returns from here with a couple of weeks in all prior cases. That would take us to around $96K.”
His most specific call in the window, and his worst — with the number in his own newsletter, not a reporter's arithmetic. Posted six days before the May high. From $79,826 BTC gained just +2.7% to $82,018 on 11 May against the “double digit returns” the analogue promised, then fell −26.6% to $58,566; it sits at $84,793 (+6.2%) five months later. $96,000 was never reached — even the 22 September high of $86,597 is 9.8% short of it. The same issue reported Capriole's Trend King as “leverage long Bitcoin”, so this was his positioning, not just his commentary.
Source“Institutions are Guzzling Bitcoin” — Charles Edwards, Substack (5 May 2026)↗ caprioleio.substack.com“Bitcoin DATs capitulated hard in April. These inflections have been very bullish in the past. Not many samples to go by, but could this time be similar?”
Treasury-company buying bounced off extreme lows and he flagged the inflection as historically bullish — while openly noting the thin sample. The caveat earned its keep: from $76,297 BTC added just +7.5% to $82,018 over ten days, then gave it all back and more, −23.2% to $58,566 on 1 July. It is $84,793 (+11.1%) five months on, but only by way of that drawdown — not the bullish inflection the post pointed to.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin DATs capitulated hard in April” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“Amongst this swathe of data (and more) it's hard not to be bullish on Bitcoin above $71.5K.”
A conditional call with the invalidation stated up front — bullish above $71.5K, and in the same letter: “if the current move breaks down next week… our systematic portfolio will pivot accordingly.” It paid, then stopped out exactly as written. From $74,297 BTC rose +10.4% to $82,018 by 11 May; his $71,500 line broke on 2 June at $71,320, and the flush ran to $58,566 (−21.2%). Now $84,793 (+14.1%). Graded on the trade he defined, not the hold.
Source“Uncharted Waters” — Charles Edwards, Substack (15 Apr 2026)↗ caprioleio.substack.com“Bitcoin I think you could summarize in a few words as it's close to the bottom than the top. Broadly trending within a value range historically in terms of onchain data and metrics. That said, it's not at the deep value range that would be really exciting for me that we've seen in prior cycles.”
The useful half of this call was the refusal: value, yes — but not the deep value that gets him excited, which he placed at the production-cost band of roughly $50,000–$60,000. Investors who waited were right. The outcome is as two-sided as the call: from $70,417 BTC first rose +16.5% to $82,018, then fell −16.8% to $58,566 on 1 July — almost symmetric — clipping the top of the band he named before recovering to $86,597 (+23.0%) on 22 September; it is $84,793 (+20.4%) now. He was right that the bottom was closer than the top, and right not to call it. He also said he doubted new all-time highs until quantum risk was addressed by Bitcoin Core — none have come.
SourceCharles Edwards Says Bitcoin Is In A Value Zone, But Not Yet At Deep Value — NewsBTC↗ newsbtc.comOutcomes are our read of his stated claim against real CoinGecko price, not his own scoring — Capriole's fund returns are not public and nothing here is a claim about them. Every $ and % figure matches scripts/price_at.py exactly. Dates are utterance dates, not the date a write-up appeared: the 5 May and 4 Sep calls are dated to his own post, which the source states explicitly, and the 26 May quote is an X post reproduced verbatim in same-day coverage. The 24 Sep and 1 Oct posts went up at 04:36 and 05:37 UTC and are charted at that day's 00:00 UTC point. Near-term marks can flip as the cycle resolves.
Bisnis Edwards adalah sebuah dana, bukan langganan atau grup sinyal — struktur insentif yang secara material berbeda dari kebanyakan nama di hub ini, dan layak dipahami alih-alih diasumsikan lebih bersih.
Menurut capriole.com, Capriole Investments didirikan pada 2019 dan mengelola «master fund berlisensi dan teraudit» (satu LP AS ditambah dua kendaraan Cayman) yang melayani investor di lebih dari 25 negara. Ekonomi seorang manajer dana — biaya pengelolaan dan biaya kinerja — bukan penjualan ritel.
Buletin dan indikator TradingView miliknya gratis dan tanpa tembok bayar, itulah sebabnya panggilan di atas bisa bersumber langsung. Insentifnya jelas: riset publik adalah pemasaran bagi dana, dan seorang manajer yang membicarakan portofolionya sedang membicarakan posisi yang hidup.
Kami tidak menemukan langganan sinyal, kode rujukan, atau promosi token dalam materi yang ditinjau. Ketiadaan bukti dalam sampel tujuh bulan bukanlah bukti ketiadaan — tetapi itulah yang ditunjukkan catatannya.
Dana kelolaan, imbal hasil, ukuran posisinya sendiri, jumlah pengikut, dan negara tempat tinggal tidak dikonfirmasi publik, jadi tidak ada satu angka pun tentang hal-hal itu di halaman ini.
“The best Long-term value opportunities have historically been between here and Electrical Cost, currently at $50K.”
9 Jun 2026 · metodenya bekerja — nilai di titik terendah“It's very hard for bad things to happen to Bitcoin when Capriole's Market Hedge Ratio is this green.”
4 Sep 2026 · posted on the day of a local top“Amongst this swathe of data (and more) it's hard not to be bullish on Bitcoin above $71.5K.”
15 Apr 2026 · panggilan dengan invalidasinya sendiri di dalamnyaKutipan diambil dari sumber publik miliknya sendiri; ini pandangan yang dinyatakan, bukan rekomendasi.
Tidak ada perpustakaan video untuk ditautkan: Edwards tidak punya kanal sendiri. Ia menerbitkan Substack gratis, mengunggah grafik di X, dan tampil sebagai tamu di tempat lain — justru itulah sebabnya setiap panggilan di atas adalah unggahan bertanggal atau kutipan verbatim dalam liputan bertanggal, bukan potongan video. Dua surat miliknya yang menjadi dasar dua panggilan bersifat publik dan ditautkan pada kartunya: «Uncharted Waters» (15 Apr 2026) dan «Institutions are Guzzling Bitcoin» (5 Mei 2026).
Pendiri dan CEO Capriole Investments, dana aset digital sistematis yang diluncurkan pada 2019. Ia paling dikenal karena menciptakan metrik on-chain bitcoin yang dipakai luas — Hash Ribbons, Bitcoin Energy Value, Production Cost, dan Bitcoin Yardstick — serta karena menerbitkan risetnya secara gratis di Substack dan X dengan akun @caprioleio.
Tidak terverifikasi publik. Ia mengelola dana alih-alih menjual langganan, dan dana kelolaan, biaya, serta imbal hasil Capriole tidak dipublikasikan. Abaikan angka spesifik apa pun — tidak ada yang terkonfirmasi.
His record in this seven-month sample splits cleanly by horizon. Slow valuation work — the March “not deep value yet” refusal and the June production-cost call — was right, the latter ahead of a 37.3% rally, and his 26 May reversal to caution was right too. Fast bullish flow signals were not: three of them in May and September fired within days of local tops, one on the day of a local top. He is a research source, not a trade alert, and nothing here is financial advice.
Sistematis dan dipandu valuasi. Ia menilai bitcoin terhadap biaya memproduksinya (Energy Value, Production Cost, dengan Electrical Cost sebagai lantai), memeriksa silang dengan metrik on-chain seperti Yardstick, MVRV Z-score, dan Dynamic Range NVT, serta melacak permintaan institusional terhadap emisi tambang harian. Capriole memperdagangkan ini melalui model internal bernama — Trend King, Macro Index — dan ia menyatakan level invalidasinya di depan publik.
Gratis di caprioleio.substack.com dan di X sebagai @caprioleio; perusahaannya di capriole.com, dan indikatornya diterbitkan di TradingView. Tidak ada grup sinyal berbayar dalam materi yang kami tinjau.
Edwards menilai bitcoin seperti komoditas — berapa biaya membuatnya, dan berapa nilainya relatif terhadap itu. Seberapa dekat naluri Anda? Ukur sungguhan dengan Trader Passport.
Sekarang gunakan pendekatan Anda. Uji keunggulan Anda pada data pasar langsung — tanpa risiko modal — di turnamen gratis BuyCrypt dengan hadiah nyata.
Analisis informatif dan edukatif yang sepenuhnya berdasar materi yang tersedia untuk publik — unggahan bertanggal miliknya di Substack dan X, serta liputan bertanggal pihak ketiga, ditautkan pada setiap panggilan. Setiap kutipan diambil ulang dari sumbernya dan dicocokkan verbatim sebelum terbit. Bukan nasihat keuangan atau investasi, dan bukan pernyataan tentang kinerja dana Capriole Investments, yang tidak dipublikasikan. Angka bersifat perkiraan dan terus berubah. Spotted an error, or are you Charles? Kirim koreksi →
Akun terverifikasi · Sumber dicantumkan di atas · Metodologi penilaian · Diperbarui 4 October 2026
