@CryptoHayes
Salah satu pendiri BitMEX, kini CIO family office-nya, Maelstrom — dan penulis esai makro paling layak dikutip di kripto. Seluruh kerangkanya muat dalam satu kalimat: jumlah uang fiat, bukan harga uang, yang menetapkan harga Bitcoin. Ia menerbitkannya dalam esai bertanggal, bernomor, dan bermulut kasar dengan namanya sendiri — justru karena itulah semuanya bisa diperiksa.
Singkatnya. Arthur Hayes writes the crypto market's most-read macro newsletter, Crypto Trader Digest, and runs Maelstrom, the family office built on his BitMEX fortune. His thesis rarely changes: central banks and treasuries will keep creating fiat to fund deficits, wars and the AI build-out, and Bitcoin is the most sensitive asset to that expansion. What changes — sometimes violently — is his timing. Across 2026 he swung from telling readers to sit on their hands, to declaring a new all-time high a “foregone conclusion” at a price Bitcoin would not see again for four months, to admitting in print four weeks later that he had erred, to calling the bottom almost to the day. He publishes both halves, which is more than most.
Hayes lahir tahun 1985, meraih gelar ekonomi di Wharton pada 2008, dan memperdagangkan derivatif ekuitas di Deutsche Bank sebelum pindah ke Citigroup sebagai trader delta one di Hong Kong. Pada 2014 ia ikut mendirikan BitMEX bersama Ben Delo dan Samuel Reed. Perpetual swap dengan leverage 100x milik bursa itu menjadi cetak biru perdagangan berleverage di kripto dan membuat ketiganya sangat kaya.
Kisahnya juga berakhir di perkara pidana. Ketiganya didakwa pada Oktober 2020, dan Hayes mengaku bersalah pada Februari 2022 atas pelanggaran Bank Secrecy Act — BitMEX tidak menjalankan program antipencucian uang dan kenali-nasabahmu sementara melayani nasabah AS. Ia dijatuhi enam bulan tahanan rumah dan dua tahun masa percobaan serta setuju membayar $10 juta. Ia tidak menjalani hukuman penjara. Presiden Trump mengampuni Hayes, Delo, dan Reed pada akhir Maret 2025. Setiap pembacaan atas karyanya soal kebijakan moneter dan regulasi sebaiknya membawa serta riwayat itu.
Sejak meninggalkan BitMEX ia menjalankan Maelstrom, buku family office yang hanya long dengan posisi awal di token termasuk Ethena dan Ether.fi, dan menerbitkan Crypto Trader Digest kira-kira setiap satu sampai tiga minggu. Pada Agustus 2026 ia keluar dari masa pensiun untuk menjadi CEO Flop Labs, yang merencanakan token FLOP sebagai mata uang untuk komputasi agen AI — diumumkan dalam esainya sendiri tanggal 19 Agustus, dengan airdrop testnet sekitar 20% pasokan dan tanpa penjualan awal. Kini ia adalah operator dengan token yang akan diluncurkan, bukan sekadar komentator.
Sources: cryptohayes.substack.com · x.com/CryptoHayes · dated public interviews and press
Top-down liquidity, expressed through derivatives. Hayes starts from the plumbing — Treasury issuance and buybacks, the Fed's balance sheet, bank credit creation, the BOJ and the yen carry trade, Chinese lending — and treats Bitcoin as the fastest-reacting claim on total fiat supply. He states it plainly: he believes the quantity of money determines Bitcoin's price, not the interest rate. His book is long-only and large, so he expresses caution by refusing to add rather than by going short, and hedges with put spreads and options rather than selling spot. The strength is the framework: he was structurally right that liquidity would expand, and his essays name the mechanism before the market prices it. The weakness is entry timing — a framework that says “eventually” gets used to justify buying anything, and in May 2026 it put him at maximum conviction on a high that held for four months.
Secara struktural sangat bullish: ia memperkirakan pelemahan uang fiat akan makin cepat dan menyatakan Maelstrom berada pada risiko maksimum. Bacalah angka ini sebagai keyakinan soal arah, bukan soal waktu — rekam jejaknya sendiri di 2026 menunjukkan keduanya masalah yang berbeda.
Nine dated calls taken from his own newsletter, not from press paraphrase — his words, his publication dates, charted against real price. Ten Crypto Trader Digest essays fall inside our price window; these are the ones containing an actual BTC or ETH call. The shape of the year is worth stating up front: his best calls were the ones with no number in them. Two bottom calls landed almost to the day. The one time he named a target and a date-free certainty — “retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion” — he published it on 11 May 2026, at a price Bitcoin did not close above again until 22 September — and the levels he named, $90,000 and $126,000, have still not come.
“It behooves punters to limit the use of leverage and wait for the all-clear from the Fed that it’s time to dump filthy fiat and ape into risky assets with wanton abandon.”
He deliberately refused to pick a side — either the fall from $126,000 to $60,000 was the whole move, or Bitcoin dumps further — and told readers to de-leverage and wait for a Fed all-clear. Both halves are still unresolved. The essay now predates our price window, which begins 8 March, so the chart anchors at $67,340 rather than his publication-day price. From there BTC fell −13.0% to $58,566 on 1 July, ran +28.6% to $86,597 on 22 September, and holds $84,580 (+25.6%). So waiting has cost money, but the drawdown he warned about did arrive. Logged open: the AI banking crisis this essay is built on has not happened in the seven and a half months since.
SourceThis Is Fine — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“That’s not to say it couldn’t spike to $80,000 to $90,000, but for me putting new units of fiat at risk requires an all-clear from the Fed.”
Two things he got right at $74,297: the spike he flagged landed inside his band — BTC printed $82,018 on 11 May, +10.4% — and declining to deploy fresh money was right through the summer, because price then fell −21.2% to $58,566 on 1 July. The later recovery went back into his band, to $86,597 on 22 September (+16.6%), and BTC holds $84,580 (+13.8%). The miss belongs on the same card: in this essay he wrote that he hoped Bitcoin could hold $60,000 in a crash. It did not. BTC closed at $58,566 on 1 July.
SourceNo Trade Zone — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“Bitcoin bottomed earlier this year at $60,000, and with a tailwind of trillions of dollars and yuan yet to be created at its back, retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion.”
This is the one that matters. He called a new all-time high a foregone conclusion, said he expected the rally to turn explosive after punching through $90,000, and said he would take Maelstrom's book to maximum risk — and he published it at $82,018, a close Bitcoin did not see again for more than four months. It fell −28.6% to $58,566 on 1 July. The recovery finally cleared his entry in late September, peaking at $86,597 on 22 September (+5.6%), and BTC holds $84,580 (+3.1%) — but $90,000 has still not been reached, and $126,000 has not been retaken. It stays went against: neither level he named has arrived, and anyone who followed him in sat up to 28.6% under water before getting back to roughly flat. He recanted 28 days later, in writing — see the next call.
SourceThe Butterfly Touch — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“I am confident that Bitcoin will dump then pump.”
Written at $63,274, and it happened in exactly that sequence: BTC dumped −7.4% to $58,566 on 1 July, then pumped +36.9% to $86,597 by 22 September, and holds $84,580 (+33.7%). The same essay contains the sentence most commentators never write — “Yes, I know I proclaimed we wouldn’t see $60,000 Bitcoin again, and obviously I erred, but that’s forecasting for you.” Marked played out on price, and worth noting for the correction.
SourceReality Test — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“As credit expands against a deceleration of AI CAPEX spend, Bitcoin will bottom and begin a secular rise.”
Close to exact. From $63,465, the lowest close that followed was $62,844 on 17 August — just −1.0% below him — before a +36.4% run to $86,597 on 22 September; BTC holds $84,580 (+33.3%). The caveat is on the card because it is in the same essay: his guessed levels were too low. He floated a $60,000 to $70,000 chop with $50,000 downside, and Bitcoin instead broke out above his range within a month and never came close to $50,000. Right on direction, wrong on the numbers.
SourceSituationship — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“My rough target price for Ether by the end of 2026 is $5,000, which is ~2.6x up from current levels.”
His first hard number with a real deadline, and it is still live — 31 December 2026 is under three months out. His own “~2.6x” checks against our data: ETH was $1,859 when he wrote it. It has since run +49.3% to $2,775 on 22 September and holds $2,681 (+44.2%). But $5,000 needs roughly another +87% from here, so he is well behind pace. Logged open, not credited — and note that on 2 September he restated the same end-of-2026 Ether target at $10,000, which is a later call on this page.
SourceSituationship — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“Whether Bessent pumps fast or slow, Bitcoin will continue its rally.”
His position then: Treasury buybacks of longer-dated debt are the new liquidity tap, the next bull market “just began”, and Maelstrom is back at maximum risk. From the $77,712 he wrote at, BTC first slipped −2.7% to $75,590 on 16 September, then ran +11.4% to $86,597 on 22 September — the highest close in our price window — and holds $84,580 (+8.8%). That is the rally continuing, as he said, with a shallow dip on the way. Marked played out as a direction call; he named no target. One disclosure: we date this to the essay's own timestamp of 24 August. Press covering it called it his 25 August essay; anchored to the 25th ($78,974) the call reads −4.3% at the dip, +9.7% at the high and +7.1% now — the same verdict.
SourceSame Same But Different — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“Maelstrom’s preferred cryptos haven’t changed. Our structural Bitcoin long will anchor the portfolio. The more speculative short-term end of 2026 bets are still Ether ($10k price target), Ethena ($0.5 price target), and Ether.fi ($2 price target).”
Read the word still carefully. Four weeks earlier he put his end-of-2026 Ether target at $5,000; here he writes that nothing has changed and prints $10,000 — the number quietly doubled while the deadline stayed 31 December 2026. We log it as its own call rather than an edit of the older one. ETH was $2,418 the day he published, dipped −1.1% to $2,391 on 3 September, ran +14.8% to $2,775 on 22 September, and holds $2,681 (+10.9%). $10,000 needs roughly another +273% in under three months. Logged open, and it is the most demanding number on this page.
SourceAtención — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“This essay should give one confidence that the choppy nature of the crypto markets post the late August mini-pump will end soon. The amount of dollars in the system will continue to grow, and Bitcoin and selected shitcoins will rise in in price.”
His newest essay argues that if the leading AI labs slow down under a “Safety First” banner, the debt that financed their compute goes bad — much of it, he says, sitting on US insurers' books — and Washington must either become the compute buyer of last resort or print money for a bailout. “Either way, we as Bitcoin holders and crypto investors win.” (The doubled “in in” is in the original.) The chart anchors at $81,169 for 21 September; the next daily point is $86,597 (+6.7%), and BTC holds $84,580 (+4.2%). Do not credit him with that jump: he published at 23:07 UTC and our daily points are taken at midnight UTC, so much of the move may have happened before he wrote. Anchored to 22 September instead, the call reads −2.3% now. Twelve days old and with no level named, it is logged open.
SourceSafety First — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.comHasil adalah pembacaan kami atas posisi yang ia nyatakan terhadap harga nyata, bukan penilaiannya sendiri. Setiap kutipan diverifikasi kata demi kata pada halaman esai yang ditautkan, dan setiap esai diunduh dua kali untuk menyingkirkan kemungkinan unduhan rusak. Harga dan persentase berasal dari deret CoinGecko yang sama dengan yang dipakai menggambar grafik. Nilai panggilan yang berumur kurang dari sebulan bisa dan akan berubah.
Hayes tidak menjual sinyal atau kursus, dan buletinnya gratis — tetapi ia salah satu suara dengan konflik kepentingan terbesar di kripto, dan konflik itu berubah secara material pada Agustus 2026. Sebagian besar ia ungkapkan sendiri; di sini semuanya dikumpulkan di satu tempat.
Ia mengelola portofolio family office hanya long yang didanai kekayaannya dari BitMEX, dengan posisi terbuka di Bitcoin, Ether, Ethena, dan Ether.fi. Ketika ia menulis bahwa ia beralih ke “risiko maksimum”, ia sedang menggambarkan posisi yang sudah ia pasang. Esai dan bukunya selalu menunjuk ke arah yang sama.
Sejak 18–19 Agustus 2026 ia menjadi CEO Flop Labs dan meluncurkan FLOP, token untuk komputasi agen AI, dengan rencana airdrop testnet sekitar 20% pasokan dan blok genesis yang dibidik pada 2027. Ia mengatakan proyeknya didanai sendiri, tanpa penjualan awal dan tanpa alokasi modal ventura. Namun ia tetap seorang komentator yang meramalkan ledakan likuiditas sambil bersiap menerbitkan token ke dalam ledakan itu.
Ia ikut mendirikan bursa yang mempopulerkan leverage 100x, mengaku bersalah pada 2022 atas pelanggaran Bank Secrecy Act, membayar $10 juta, menjalani enam bulan tahanan rumah dan dua tahun masa percobaan, lalu diampuni Presiden Trump pada Maret 2025. Kini ia banyak menulis tentang kebijakan moneter dan politik AS. Timbanglah itu sesuai penilaian Anda.
“Yes, I know I proclaimed we wouldn’t see $60,000 Bitcoin again, and obviously I erred, but that’s forecasting for you.”
08 Jun 2026 · mengakui kesalahan Mei secara tertulis“Bitcoin bottomed earlier this year at $60,000, and with a tailwind of trillions of dollars and yuan yet to be created at its back, retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion.”
11 May 2026 · published at a high that held four months“I am confident that Bitcoin will dump then pump.”
08 Jun 2026 · panggilan yang tepat, dan sesuai urutanKutipan diambil dari sumber publik miliknya sendiri; pandangan yang dinyatakan, bukan rekomendasi.
Hayes menerbitkan esai, bukan video, jadi penampilan panjangnya berupa pidato utama dan wawancara tamu di kanal orang lain. Contoh terbaru bertanggal, setiap tanggal dikonfirmasi di halaman videonya:
Arthur Hayes Bitcoin 2026 Keynote: 21 Weeks LaterPidato utama Bitcoin Magazine — perang Iran, hilangnya pekerjaan akibat AI, dan The Fed.27 Apr 2026
The AI Trade Is Killing Bitcoin? Arthur Hayes Breaks It DownWawancara Cointelegraph, beberapa hari setelah putar balik di Reality Test.12 Jun 2026
Bitcoin to $200K And AI Is the Next 2008 | Arthur HayesCoin Bureau Podcast — tesis keruntuhan kredit AI selengkapnya.21 Aug 2026
The Godfather Of Crypto Trading: My Final Warning To Bitcoin HoldersAltcoin Daily — sikap terkininya soal likuiditas dan leverage.23 Aug 2026Arthur Hayes adalah investor dan esais asal Amerika Serikat, lahir tahun 1985. Ia memperdagangkan derivatif ekuitas di Deutsche Bank dan Citigroup sebelum ikut mendirikan bursa derivatif kripto BitMEX pada 2014 bersama Ben Delo dan Samuel Reed. Kini ia menjalankan family office Maelstrom sebagai CIO, menulis buletin Crypto Trader Digest, dan sejak Agustus 2026 menjadi CEO Flop Labs.
Tidak. Ia didakwa pada Oktober 2020 dan mengaku bersalah pada Februari 2022 atas pelanggaran Bank Secrecy Act, karena BitMEX beroperasi tanpa program antipencucian uang dan kenali-nasabahmu sementara melayani nasabah AS. Ia dijatuhi enam bulan tahanan rumah dan dua tahun masa percobaan serta membayar $10 juta. Ia tidak menjalani hukuman penjara, dan Presiden Trump mengampuninya pada akhir Maret 2025.
Tidak diverifikasi secara publik. Ia luas disebut miliarder berkat kepemilikannya di BitMEX, dan family office Maelstrom miliknya memegang posisi kripto besar, tetapi tidak ada angka yang dikonfirmasi. Perlakukan setiap angka spesifik yang Anda lihat sebagai perkiraan, bukan fakta.
His direction has been more reliable than his timing. On this page his two bottom calls — 8 June and 4 August 2026 — landed almost to the day, while his most confident target call, published 11 May 2026, came at a price Bitcoin did not close above again for four months, and its $90,000 and $126,000 levels have not been reached. He is also not a neutral observer: he runs a long-only crypto book and is launching his own token. He is a commentator, not a licensed adviser.
Ia berpendapat bahwa jumlah uang fiat, bukan suku bunga, yang menetapkan harga Bitcoin — jadi ia melacak penerbitan dan pembelian kembali surat utang Departemen Keuangan, neraca The Fed, penciptaan kredit bank, carry trade yen, dan pinjaman Tiongkok, lalu memegang buku yang hanya long yang ia besarkan atau kecilkan mengikuti pembacaan itu. Ia mengekspresikan kehati-hatian dengan menolak menambah alih-alih short, dan melindungi posisi dengan opsi serta put spread.
Hayes memperdagangkan satu gagasan — uang fiat akan bertambah — dan memasangnya besar. Seberapa dekat naluri Anda? Ukur sungguhan dengan Trader Passport.
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Analisis informatif dan edukatif yang sepenuhnya berdasarkan materi publik — terutama esai buletinnya sendiri yang bertanggal, ditautkan pada setiap panggilan yang didukungnya. Bukan nasihat keuangan atau investasi. Angka bersifat perkiraan dan terus berubah. Spotted an error, or are you Arthur? Kirim koreksi →
Akun terverifikasi · Sumber dicantumkan di atas · Metodologi penilaian · Diperbarui 3 October 2026
