Kaiko analysts report potential daily outflows of $110 million for Grayscale\u2019s new Ether ETF, akin to GBTC\u2019s ETF transition.<\/p>\n
Grayscale\u2019s upcoming spot Ether exchange-traded fund (ETF) could potentially see an average outflow of $110 million per day if it follows the trend set by the company\u2019s Bitcoin Trust in its first month, according to a report by Kaiko.<\/p>\n
This projection follows the approval of spot Ether ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission last week.<\/p>\n
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) transitioned from a closed-end fund to an ETF on January 11. As reported by Kaiko analysts on May 27, it experienced a 23% outflow of its assets under management (AUM) in the first month, amounting to $6.5 billion.<\/p>\n
Grayscale\u2019s Ether Trust (ETHE) has an AUM of $11 billion. If ETHE sees a similar level of outflows as GBTC, this could result in average daily outflows of $110 million, representing 30% of ETH\u2019s average daily volume on Coinbase.<\/p>\n
Over the past three months, Grayscale\u2019s ETHE has traded at a discount of up to 26% to its net asset value (NAV). Kaiko researchers suggest that once ETHE transitions to a spot ETF, it is \u201creasonable to expect\u201d outflows or redemptions as this discount narrows.<\/p>\n
Will Cai, Head of Indices at Kaiko, commented on the SEC\u2019s approval of spot Ether ETFs, stating that it implies the agency views the underlying asset (without staking) as a commodity rather than a security. Cai added that this has significant positive implications for regulating similar tokens in the U.S. concerning trading, custody, and transfer.<\/p>\n
The likelihood of SEC approval became more evident last week after several issuers amended their filings to exclude staking. On May 20, Bloomberg even increased the approval odds from 25% to 75%.<\/p>\n
Kaiko noted that the possibility of an ETF approval had been gradually discounted over the past month due to growing uncertainty about ETH\u2019s regulatory status.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Grayscale\u2019s Ether Trust (ETHE) discount has narrowed since the SEC initially approved spot Ether ETFs on May 23, though ETHE has yet to begin trading as a spot ETF.<\/p>\n
On May 1, ETHE traded at over a 25% discount to its net asset value (NAV). However, this number steadily decreased throughout the month, reaching 1.28% on May 24, according to YCharts.<\/p>\n
Kaiko analysts highlighted that GBTC\u2019s outflows were offset by inflows into other Bitcoin ETFs by the end of January. They concluded that even if inflows into Ether ETFs \u201cdisappoint in the short term,\u201d the approval is significant for ETH and could significantly shift market sentiment toward the asset.<\/p>\n
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