Amid rising geopolitical tensions and technological challenges, the crypto market is showing signs of structural transformation. A Coinbase report predicts the beginning of a new “crypto winter”, Bitcoin dominance is hitting a 4-year high, and quantum companies are already offering rewards for breaking blockchain keys. All this paints a picture of a new era for digital assets — more tense, more technological, and more politicized.
Bitcoin Reigns Again: Dominance at Highest Level Since 2021
Bitcoin dominance — the metric representing BTC’s share of total crypto market capitalization — has reached a 4-year high, now exceeding 53%. This indicates growing investor preference for Bitcoin as a more reliable asset.
At the same time, Ethereum is losing ground: its share has dropped to multi-year lows, despite growing interest in L2 solutions and DeFi. Many analysts explain this by the increasing uncertainty in the altcoin sector and the investor shift toward “digital stability.”
Coinbase: “Crypto Winter Has Already Begun”
In a recent Coinbase Institutional report, a bleak forecast was issued: the market is entering a new phase of “crypto winter.” According to the exchange’s analysts, institutional interest is declining, while liquidity and trading volumes are falling amid macroeconomic instability.
Coinbase also notes a lack of new major growth drivers in the short term and increasing regulatory pressure in the U.S. Under such conditions, leading cryptocurrencies may remain in a sideways trend, while altcoins continue to lose value.
VanEck: BTC-Based Bonds to Rescue the U.S. Budget
An interesting proposal came from a top executive at investment firm VanEck — to use Bitcoin-backed bonds to partially cover the U.S. national debt, which has surpassed $34 trillion.
The idea is to issue debt securities tied to BTC’s value, which could, in theory, attract global demand and offer an alternative way of financing without resorting to money printing.
While the idea is bold and unlikely to be implemented anytime soon, it underscores the growing view of Bitcoin as a system-level asset, rather than just a speculative tool.
Project Eleven: 1 BTC to Crack a Bitcoin Key
Quantum computing firm Project Eleven has launched a unique challenge: 1 BTC will be awarded to anyone who can use a quantum computer to crack as much of a Bitcoin private key as possible within a year.
The goal is to test the real-world feasibility of the quantum threat and stimulate the development of quantum-resistant security protocols for blockchain networks.
While this challenge doesn’t mean Bitcoin is in immediate danger, its mere existence signals that quantum security is becoming an increasingly relevant concern.
U.S. and China: Tariffs, Crypto, and Digital Sovereignty
Geopolitics is also influencing market sentiment. The U.S. is considering raising tariffs on Chinese imports to as much as 245%, potentially sparking a new wave of economic confrontation.
Meanwhile, Reuters reports that Chinese authorities are actively liquidating confiscated cryptocurrency through private firms in an effort to refill the budget as economic growth slows.
While this practice raises concerns about transparency and legality, analysts believe it could become a trend among governments that ban crypto but still need to monetize previously seized digital assets.
The crypto world is entering a complex phase, where digital assets are reacting not only to industry news, but also to global economic and technological shifts. Bitcoin continues to strengthen its role as an anchor in turbulent waters, while the rest of the market faces new challenges — from quantum security to geopolitical decisions by superpowers.
Investors should prepare for the coming months to be shaped not by pumps and hype, but by resilience, technological reliability, and the political context.
