Markets declined last week after US jobs reports confirmed the labor market is visibly slowing down. Crypto assets remained range-bound over the weekend as investors await a week packed with key inflation data.
The Federal Reserve operates under two mandates: maximum employment and stable prices. Investors are preparing to receive crucial data on inflation trends this week, with the Kobeissi Letter noting that everything revolves around inflation ahead of a pivotal Fed meeting scheduled for 10 days away.
The August Producer Price Index report will be released Wednesday, providing insight into input costs for producers and manufacturers that relate to consumer goods and retail prices. PPI reports serve as leading inflation indicators closely monitored by investors and analysts. Thursday brings the August Consumer Price Index, one of the central bank’s key inflation measures that reflects price trends across the economy and directly impacts consumer spending and sentiment.
Friday concludes the inflation data releases with the September Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Inflation Expectations preliminary readings. These reports summarize consumer confidence and long-term inflation expectations that influence retail spending.
Bank of America economists issued a concerning forecast, expecting year-on-year headline CPI to rise from 2.7% to 2.9%, reaching its highest level since last July. The Kobeissi Letter also identified a key recession signal described as flashing red, noting that US construction spending fell 2.8% in July, marking one of the biggest drops since the 2008 Financial Crisis and the sixth consecutive monthly decline.
Rising inflation typically pressures risk-on assets like cryptocurrency as retail investors tighten spending.
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