On May 7, a key meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will take place, and the majority of investors are convinced—there will be no rate change. According to CME FedWatch Tool data, 91% of market participants expect the current interest rate to remain unchanged. Notably, in similar forecasts, the statistics have always been in investors’ favor—they have never been wrong.
This indicates that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue adhering to a tight monetary policy, showing no rush to start the “money printer” or ease financial conditions. Hopes for a rapid rate cut, which markets actively fed on earlier this year, now risk being dashed against reality—the Fed sees no reason to change course for now.
Market Pressure Mounts
This scenario brings mixed consequences for global markets. In a high-rate environment, money remains “expensive,” which slows consumption, reduces investment activity, and increases the risk of a correction in the stock market. Many participants have already priced in expectations of “cheap money,” and maintaining current conditions may trigger strategy adjustments and profit-taking.
The logical chain remains intact: the Fed maintains pressure → investor expectations worsen → risk asset sell-off → stock market correction. Since the crypto market, especially in recent years, has increasingly mirrored the behavior of traditional assets like the Nasdaq, a negative response in crypto is almost inevitable.
Bitcoin Profit-Taking Risks
Amid expectations of a monetary policy pivot, the crypto market has shown strong growth, and Bitcoin has repeatedly approached the psychological $70,000 mark, drawing more and more investor attention. However, analysts at Glassnode have issued a warning: if the price reaches $100,000, a massive wave of profit-taking may be triggered.
According to the platform, the total unrealized profit of long-term BTC holders has approached 350%—a level that historically coincides with the beginning of sell-offs. This doesn’t mean the market is doomed to fall, but it does point to a high probability of strong resistance and pressure from early investors looking to lock in gains.
Experts emphasize that to sustain growth, a strong influx of new capital will be required to absorb the supply from long-term holders. Without it, the upward trend may stall or even reverse into a correction.
Political Pressure and Regulation
While macroeconomic conditions are holding growth back, political pressure on cryptocurrencies is mounting in the United States. Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs recently vetoed a bill proposing the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the state. In her statement, she called BTC an “unproven investment,” expressing concerns about the volatility and risks associated with digital assets.
This move reflects a shift toward a more cautious tone from U.S. authorities. While some states (like Florida and Texas) are experimenting with crypto adoption, others are clearly not ready to include BTC on official balance sheets. With potential presidential elections on the horizon, cryptocurrency regulation could become a hot political issue, further adding uncertainty to the market.
In the coming weeks, the crypto market will find itself at a crossroads—between investor expectations, Fed actions, and political pressure. The absence of a rate cut on May 7 could dampen the enthusiasm of the “bulls,” and the likelihood of profit-taking at high levels only adds to the volatility.
Nevertheless, from a strategic perspective, Bitcoin and other digital assets continue to hold their position as alternatives to the traditional financial system, especially amid global distrust in fiat currencies. The market is entering a phase of heightened caution, where panic or greed may take the lead—and these are often the moments that present the best opportunities for forward-thinking investors.
